According to IOM’s population movements assessments in Syria, which started two months after the December 2024 power shift, 61 % of Idlib governorate’s population (around 1 769 000 out of a total population of approximately 2.90 million) were IDPs as of February 2025.576 Since then, according to data from subsequent population movements assessment rounds, the share of IDPs of the total population has steadily decreased,577 reaching 33 % (around 878 955 out of a total of 2.66 million) as of April 2026.578 Idlib remained the primary area in Syria from which IDPs returned in March579 and April 2026,580 driven by higher rental expenses in displacement sites and worsening living conditions caused by heavy rainfall.581
At the same time, IOM reported that Idlib governorate provided the most favorable conditions for a sustainable return within the country as of January 2026. Indicators used for this IOM-assessment included, among others, security, access to livelihoods, housing, and access to documentation.582 This is reflected in the numbers of IDP returnees to Idlib, which rose from around 145 000 (5 % of the total population) in February 2025583 to around 559 000 (21 % of the total population) as of April 2026. An additional 5 % (around 133 000) of Idlib’s population were documented as returnees from abroad.584 However, UNHCR estimated that, as of 21 May 2026, around 417 000 individuals had returned to Idlib governorate from internal displacement since December 2024585 and approximately 240 000 had returned from abroad within the same period.586
- 576
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Community Baseline Assessment – Round 1 – February 2025, 6 March 2025, url, pp. 3, 7
- 577
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 4 – May 2025, 11 June 2025, url, p. 8; IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 7 – August 2025, 12 September 2025, url, p. 8; IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 10 – November 2025, 19 December 2025, url, p. 7; IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 13 – February 2026, 16 March 2026, url, p. 7
- 578
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 15 – April 2026, 18 May 2026, url, p. 7
- 579
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 14 – March 2026, 16 April 2026, url, p. 5
- 580
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 15 – April 2026, 18 May 2026, url, p. 5
- 581
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 14 – March 2026, 16 April 2026, url, p. 5
- 582
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic, Communities of Return Index, January 2026 – Round 4, 2 April 2026, url, pp. 3, 23
- 583
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Community Baseline Assessment – Round 1 – February 2025, 6 March 2025, url, p. 7
- 584
IOM, Syrian Arab Republic – Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment – Round 15 – April 2026, 18 May 2026, url, p. 7
- 585
UNHCR, Syrian Arab Republic: Comprehensive Overview of IDPs and IDP Returns Dashboard [Map], 21 May 2026, url
- 586
UNHCR, Syrian Arab Republic: Comprehensive Overview of Refugee Returns Dashboard [Map], 21 May 2026, url