4. Socio-economic situation with a focus on Damascus city

4.1. Overview of economic situation

In 2025, Syria experienced a modest but fragile economic recovery, with real GDP growth estimated at 2-4 %, driven by the lifting of sanctions, renewed trade, increased public-sector wages, and refugee returns.954 Authorities have taken steps towards the liberalisation of the economy, while making efforts to unify macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary policies.955 Despite these improvements, economic conditions remained severe, with inflation, high unemployment, and declining purchasing power significantly impacting daily life.956 Price increases affecting many basic goods and food items were reported in the first quarter of 2026, driven by rising production costs, currency depreciation,957 and regional geopolitical tensions.958 The regional conflict in the Middle East has led to increased import costs, disrupted supply chains, negatively affected food production,959 and reduced electricity supply.960 Authorities efforts to improve access to food, fuel961 and services such as electricity have often come with significant price increases.962 As a result, services are more accessible but often unaffordable,963 leading to public protests against rising cost of living, particularly high fuel and electricity bills.964

The World Food Programme’s (WFP) Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB)965 far exceeded the minimum wage, leaving nearly 90 % of households struggling to meet basic needs, while Syria’s 2025 humanitarian plan was only 35 % funded.966 WFP has cut emergency food assistance by 50 %, reducing support from 1.3 million to 650 000 people in May 2026, and ended a nationwide bread subsidy programme that had assisted millions each day.967 In 2025, Syria faced its most severe drought in nearly 40 years, significantly impacting water availability and food security, with an estimated 2.7 million-ton wheat deficit affecting at least 16.2 million people.968 Since late May 2026, severe flooding along the Euphrates in Deir Ez-Zor and Raqqa has caused displacement, damaged infrastructure, and disrupted livelihoods during the harvest season, further exacerbating food insecurity in some of Syria’s most vulnerable areas.969

UNOCHA estimated that in 2026, 15.6 million people in Syria require humanitarian assistance, including over 5.5 million IDPs, as well IDP returnees and refugee returnees. This represents a decrease of 900 000 people compared to 2025, which was attributed to ‘some nominal improvements’ and stricter scope of humanitarian assistance.970