2.5.2. Mudug

According to Map 3 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2026 and Map 2 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2025, Gaalkacyo was under mixed control of ‘autonomous armed forces’ and the ‘federal-aligned coalition’. The northern and southern areas of Southern Mudug were under mixed control of Al-Shabaab and the ‘federal-aligned coalition’. The towns of Amara and Qey’ad and areas west of these towns were controlled by Al-Shabaab, while the towns of Hobyo, Wisil and Xardheere were controlled by the ‘federal-aligned coalition’. As of 31 March 2026, small parts in the south-east of Northern Mudug were under mixed control between Al-Shabaab and ‘autonomous armed forces’, while the rest, including Gara’ad, was controlled by ‘autonomous armed forces’.582

Southern Mudug remained a focal point in Somalia’s efforts to counter-insurgency efforts.583 Several government(-aligned) operations against Al-Shabaab584 and Al-Shabaab attacks585 were reported during the reference period. Clan-related killings significantly increased in late 2024 and 2025.586 Clan conflicts were reported during the reference period,587 especially in Gaalkacyo.588 For example, in October 2025, local media reported that civilians were the target of violence and killings by armed groups in the northern part of Gaalkacyo city.589

In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 114 security incidents in Mudug region, including battles, explosions or other forms of remote violence, and violence against civilians, causing 273 fatalities. Most of the security incidents were recorded in Gaalkacyo district (48 incidents including 30 cases of violence against civilians). Xarardheere and Hobyo recorded 47 incidents, while Galdogob and Jariiban recorded 19 incidents, including 9 cases of violence against civilians.590

Figure 29: Evolution of security events and fatalities in Mudug per month, based on ACLED data.591

In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, the following actors (coded as either ‘Actor 1’, or ‘Actor 2’) were, among others, involved in security incidents: Al-Shabaab was involved in 25 security incidents against Military and Police Forces of Somalia and associated actors (including Hawiye sub-clan militias and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa). Moreover, Al-Shabaab was involved in 11 security incidents against various (sub-)clan militias. All incidents involving Al-Shabaab occurred in Xarardheere and Hobyo districts. 22 security incidents involved clashes between (sub-)clan militias (including 13 in Gaalkacyo district), and 39 incidents involved violence against civilians by (sub-)clan militias.593

Illustrative security incidents

• On 29 May 2025, an armed militia attacked a prison in a Puntland-administered part of Gaalkacyo, trying to free prisoners. No casualty numbers were released.594

• On 7 June 2025, a taxi driver and a passenger were shot and killed by unidentified gunmen in a Puntland-administered area of Gaalkacyo city in an incident of alleged inter-clan violence.595

• On 17 November 2025, Ma’awiisley militia fighters and government troops clashed with Al-Shabaab in Dumaaye village, in Xarardheere, resulting in six militants killed.596

• On 9 March 2026,597 according to NISA, 15 Al-Shabaab fighters, including leaders of the group, were killed in airstrikes in Dumaaye area.598 ACLED data noted over 100 fighters were killed.599

• Conflict-related displacement

According to the UNHCR PRMN, 205 individuals were newly displaced from Mudug region due to conflict or insecurity in the period from April 2025 to February 2026. The majority of the displaced individuals (150) were displaced within Hobyo district in Mudug in April 2025. In the same period, 38 other individuals arrived from other regions, all arriving in Gaalkacyo.600 In February 2026, 66 000 individuals were displaced by severe drought conditions in Hobyo district,601 with the combined effects of drought and insecurity escalating displacement within the district.602

Other impacts on civilian life and humanitarian situation

A December 2025 map by UNOCHA showed ‘very heavy restrictions’ regarding humanitarian access in most parts of Xarardheere district and the southern parts of Hobyo district.603 Humanitarian access was reportedly limited by clashes involving government forces, as well as inter-clan violence.604 In August 2025, prices for food and essential goods rose after Al-Shabaab blockaded Xarardheere town.605 As of January 2026, IPC reported that about 79 % of the total analysed population of 1 528 722 were either in Acute Food Insecurity IPC Phase 2 (stressed, 36 %), 3 (crisis, 32 % in) or 4 (emergency, 11 %).606 As of November 2025, UNOCHA mentioned acute drought conditions, water scarcity, and hunger in several villages in Hobyo district.607 In January 2026, two civilians were killed and two injured in a landmine explosion in Xarardheere district.608 NRC data for 2025 and early 2026 showed the eviction of 3 420 individuals.609

No current information could be found regarding infrastructure damage and access to health.