1.4. Recent overall security trends

1.4.1. Security incidents, estimated civilian fatalities and casualties

During the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 4 676 security incidents across Somalia, including battles, explosions or other forms of remote violence, and violence against civilians, with the following breakdown by incident type: 2 969 battles, 936 explosions or other forms of remote violence, and 771 incidents of violence against civilians. In addition to the 771 incidents coded as violence against civilians, civilians were impacted by another 70 incidents that involved explosions or other remote violence.168

The 4 676 security incidents recorded by ACLED during the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026 resulted in overall 8 753 fatalities.170

During the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded the highest numbers of security incidents in Lower Shabelle (976), Bari (719) and Lower Juba (500), while the highest fatality figures were likewise documented in Lower Shabelle (1 905) and Lower Juba (1 334), followed by Middle Shabelle (1 149).172

During the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED data shows that the following actors (coded as ‘Actor 1’ or ‘Actor 2’) were, among others, involved in security incidents. Al-Shabaab was implicated in 2 944 incidents resulting in 6 652 fatalities, while military and police forces of Somalia (including FMS forces) were involved in 2 901 incidents that resulted in 5 733 fatalities. Unidentified military forces were involved in 229 incidents that resulted in 1 227 fatalities while clan and subclan militia (excluding Macawiisley militia) were involved in 805 incidents causing 1 038 fatalities, and ISS was involved in 685 incidents that caused 1 018 fatalities.174

AFRICOM declared at least 117 aerial strikes (or series of such strikes) by US forces between April 2025 and March 2026 that targeted Al-Shabaab and ISS. The source did not list any figures on civilian casualties during the reference period.176 Meanwhile, the US think tank New America reported that US forces had carried out 166 aerial strikes (air or drone strikes) in Somalia from March 2025 to March 2026 which resulted in an estimated 12 additional civilian deaths, apart from targeted militants.177 By comparison, Airwars recorded that aerial strikes conducted between April and November 2025 had left between 22 and 28 civilians dead and nine others injured.178 During the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 433 air/drone strikes causing 1 694 fatalities overall, including civilians.179