Middle Juba region is divided into three districts: Bu’aale, Jilib and Saakow. The region’s capital is Bu’aale.249 As of January 2026, Middle Juba’s population was estimated at 447 217.250 For more detailed background information on Middle Juba, see section 2.1.2. of the EUAA COI Report Somalia: Security Situation (May 2025).
Middle Juba region remained an Al-Shabaab stronghold,251 with the town of Jilib serving as the group’s de facto capital252 and command centre.253 According to Map 3 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2026 and Map 2 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2025, Al-Shabaab has been in control of the entire region, including the towns of Bu’aale, Jilib, Saakow, and Salagle.254
Somali forces, including NISA, and supporting international forces carried out a number of targeted military operations against Al-Shabaab in Bu’aale,255 Jilib,256 and Saakow districts.257 These resulted in the deaths of several senior Al-Shabaab commanders258 and dozens of fighters,259 as well as the destruction of an explosives production facility used by the group.260 Meanwhile, the group continued to execute individuals it accused of ‘spying’.261
In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 109 security incidents in Middle Juba region, including battles, explosions/other forms of remote violence, and violence against civilians, causing 312 fatalities.262
Figure 11: Evolution of security events and fatalities in Middle Juba per month, based on ACLED data.263
Figure 12: Evolution of security events in Middle Juba per type, based on ACLED data.264
In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, the following actors (coded as either ‘Actor 1’ or ‘Actor 2’) were, among others, involved in security incidents: Al-Shabaab was involved in nine incidents against Military or Police Forces of Somalia and 54 incidents of violence against civilians.265
Illustrative security incidents
-
In January 2026, Al-Shabaab carried out public executions of five men in Jilib town after accusing them of having provided intelligence to Somali and US security agencies that had allegedly facilitated targeted operations and airstrikes against the group’s positions.266
-
On 6 February 2026, a joint military operation by NISA and international forces led to the killing of eight Al-Shabaab fighters in the Arabow area of Bu’aale district.267
- Conflict-related displacement
According to the UNHCR PRMN, 4 805 individuals were newly displaced in Middle Juba region due to conflict or insecurity during the period from April 2025 to February 2026. Most of them were displaced from areas located in Bu’aale (2 424) and Jilib (1 497) districts. Nearly all of those displaced in Middle Juba fled to other regions (4 798), predominantly Lower Juba (4 704). During the same period, only a very small number of displaced individuals (12) arrived in Middle Juba from another region.268
Other impacts on civilian life and humanitarian situation
A December 2025 map by UNOCHA showed ‘very heavy restrictions’ regarding humanitarian access in all parts of Middle Juba region.269 As of January 2026, the IPC reported that about 59 % of the total analysed population of 447 217 were either in Acute Food Insecurity IPC Phase 2 (stressed, 41 %), 3 (crisis, 14 %) or 4 (emergency, 4 %).270 NRC’s records on evictions in 2025 and 2026 did not include data on Middle Juba.271
- 249
UNOCHA, Somalia Administrative Reference Map, as of 20 July 2023, url
- 250
IPC, Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis January-June 2026, 24 February 2026, url, p. 4
- 251
Hiiraan Online, Somali, U.S. forces destroy al-Shabab explosives factory in Middle Juba region, 10 January 2026, url; Somalia Today, Somali forces, US allies destroy Al-Shabaab bomb factory, 9 January 2026, url
- 252
UN Security Council, Report of the Panel of Experts on Somalia pursuant to resolution 2713 (2023), S/2025/777, 28 November 2025, url, para. 7; Washington Post (The), How U.S. cuts in Somalia could imperil the fight against al-Shabab, 27 May 2025, url
- 253
AUSSOM, Joint AUSSOM–SNAF operation captures senior Al-Shabaab commander, 2 April 2026, url
- 254
PolGeoNow, Somalia Approximate Territorial Control, as of 31 March 2026, n.a.; PolGeoNow, Somalia Approximate Territorial Control, as of 31 March 2025, n.a.
- 255
Hiiraan Online, Somalia Intelligence, partners kill eight al-Shabab fighters in Middle Juba region, 7 February 2026, url
- 256
AA, Somali forces kill over 42 al-Shabaab terrorists, including 2 ringleaders, in military operations, 26 March 2026, url
- 257
SONNA, Somali National Army eliminates 18 Al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Juba region, 9 January 2026, url
- 258
AA, Somali forces kill over 42 al-Shabaab terrorists, including 2 ringleaders, in military operations, 26 March 2026, url; LWJ, Somali intelligence claims death of senior Shabaab leader, 3 January 2026, url
- 259
Hiiraan Online, Somalia Intelligence, partners kill eight al-Shabab fighters in Middle Juba region, 7 February 2026, url; SONNA, Somali National Army eliminates 18 Al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Juba region, 9 January 2026, url
- 260
Hiiraan Online, Somali, U.S. forces destroy al-Shabab explosives factory in Middle Juba region, 10 January 2026, url; SONNA, Somali National Army eliminates 18 Al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Juba region, 9 January 2026, url; Goobjoog, Somali Forces, With U.S. Support, Carry Out Air Operation Against Al-Shabaab in Middle Juba, 9 January 2026, url
- 261
Somalia Today, Al-Shabaab executes five men accused of ‘spying’ for US, 26 January 2026, url
- 262
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Data Export Tool, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, as of 16 April 2026, url
- 263
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Data Export Tool, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, as of 16 April 2026, url
- 264
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Data Export Tool, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, as of 16 April 2026, url
- 265
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Data Export Tool, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, as of 16 April 2026, url
- 266
Somalia Today, Al-Shabaab executes five men accused of ‘spying’ for US, 26 January 2026, url
- 267
Hiiraan Online, Somalia Intelligence, partners kill eight al-Shabab fighters in Middle Juba region, 7 February 2026, url
- 268
UNHCR, PRMN Datafile – Somalia, as of 16 April 2026, url
- 269
UNOCHA, Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026, 27 January 2026, url, p. 17
- 270
IPC, Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis January-June 2026, 24 February 2026, url, p. 4
- 271
NRC, Evictions, n.d., url, filter ‘2025’ and ‘2026’ as year respectively, ‘Middle Juba’ as region. Numbers include data until 31 March 2026, as of 8 April 2026.