2.1.1. Gedo

According to Map 3 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2026 and Map 2 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2025, Al-Shabaab controlled a significant portion of Gedo’s territory, including the towns and surroundings of El Adde and Cows Qurun, as well as large rural territories encompassing parts of Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts and most of Bardhere district. Meanwhile, the towns of Garbahaarey, Belet Xaawo, and Burdhubo remained under ‘federal-aligned coalition’ control, while ‘autonomous armed forces’ (Jubbaland forces, Jubbaland-aligned FGS units and Kenyan/Ethiopian forces) continued to hold Doolow town. Control of Bardhere town continued to be mixed between federal and Jubbaland forces, while control over the towns of Luuq and Ceel Waaq shifted from full Jubbaland control to mixed Jubbaland/federal control. The rural surroundings of all above-mentioned towns except El Adde and Cows Qurun remained under mixed dominance between Al-Shabaab and either the FGS-aligned coalition or Jubbaland forces.216

The northern parts of Gedo have seen significant insecurity since 2024.217 The region has been marked by years of tension between the FGS and the Jubbaland state administration218 as well as related rifts between the Gedo regional authorities and the Jubbaland administration. The situation re-escalated219 as the FGS renewed efforts to wrest control of Gedo.220 In late July 2025, deadly221 clashes erupted in Belet Xaawo222 between FGS-aligned forces and Jubbaland troops223 and further spread to Doolow,224 where Ethiopian troops supporting the Jubbaland forces captured a NISA camp.225 The fighting continued intermittently until 11 August 2025,226 seeing three waves of violence.227 By mid-August 2025, however, it was reported that FGS forces had gained the upper hand.228

Against the backdrop of recurring cycles of clan-related violence,229 heavy clashes were reported between rivalling clan militias in rural areas around Luuq town.230 Meanwhile, counter-insurgency operations were conducted by Jubbaland/Ethiopian forces in Doolow231 and FGS forces in Bardhere, resulting in the killing of several Al-Shabaab fighters and the destruction of their positions.232

In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 130 security incidents in Gedo region, including battles, explosions/other forms of remote violence, and violence against civilians, causing 81 fatalities.233

Figure 9: Evolution of security events and fatalities in Gedo per month, based on ACLED data.234

In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, the following actors (coded as either ‘Actor 1’ or ‘Actor 2’) were, among others, involved in security incidents: Al-Shabaab was involved in 46 security incidents against Military or Police Forces of Somalia and 12 incidents of violence against civilians. Jubbaland Security Forces were involved in 19 security incidents against Military or Police Forces of Somalia. 16 security incidents involved clashes between (sub-)clan militias, and 12 incidents involved violence against civilians by (sub-)clan militias.236

Illustrative security incidents

• On 22 July 2025, clashes erupted as Jubbaland forces responded fiercely to the arrival of Abdirashid Janan, a controversial former Jubbaland minister whom the FGS had appointed as its intelligence chief for the region. At least five soldiers were reported to have been killed and over a dozen people wounded, including civilians caught in the crossfire.237

• On 21 September 2025, clashes between two clan militias that had erupted in an area located between Luuq town and Yurkud village left at least four people dead and several others injured.238

• Conflict-related displacement

According to the UNHCR PRMN, 29 107 individuals were newly displaced in Gedo region due to conflict or insecurity during the period from April 2025 to February 2026. The majority of them were displaced from areas located in Belet Xaawo district (25 163) and Luuq (2 226) districts. Most displacements in Gedo occurred within the same region (27 277). During the same period, IDPs (447) arrived in Gedo from other regions.239 Significant numbers of individuals were displaced due to armed clashes between the FGS and Jubbaland forces in Belet Xaawo town in late July 2025240 and 11 August 2025.241

Other impacts on civilian life and humanitarian situation

A December 2025 map by UNOCHA showed ‘heavy’ and ‘very heavy restrictions’ regarding humanitarian access in most of Gedo region, including across most of Garbahaarey, Ceel Waaq and Bardhere districts.242 The year 2025 saw a deterioration in humanitarian access.243 UNOCHA recorded 31 humanitarian access incidents in Gedo during 2025, more than in any other region. Clan violence and other security incidents disrupted aid operations in parts of the region.244 As of January 2026, the IPC reported that about 54 % of the total analysed population of 1 014 335 were either in Acute Food Insecurity IPC Phase 2 (stressed, 37 %), 3 (crisis, 13 %) or 4 (emergency, 4 %).245 Water prices rose significantly due to severe droughts during the last quarter of 2025.246 NRC data for 2025 and early 2026 showed the eviction of 915 individuals (all of them recorded in 2025).247 Many of those affected by the conflict in Belet Xaawo in July 2025 were in need of clean water, food, health services, and shelter.248