2.1.3. Lower Juba

According to Map 3 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2026 and Map 2 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2025, Al-Shabaab controlled the towns of Jamaame, Hagar, Mido, Berhani and Badhaadhe as well as swaths of rural territory in the region’s east and north-east encompassing Jamaame and parts of Afmadow district. The group further controlled rural areas stretching northward from the Badhaadhe area into Afmadow. Meanwhile, ‘autonomous armed forces’ (Jubbaland forces, Jubbaland-aligned FGS units and Kenyan/Ethiopian forces) controlled the cities and towns of Kismayo, Bulo Xaji, Koday, Ras Kamboni, Kolbiyow, Jana Abdale, Afmadow, Dhobley, Dif, as well as the town of Bar Sanguni, where control shifted from mixed FGS-Jubbaland control to full Jubbaland control. In the rural areas not fully dominated by Al-Shabaab, control was mixed between the group and Jubbaland forces.277 The security landscape of Kismayo city was dominated by the Jubbaland authorities, who held a monopoly on violence.278 The reference period saw the deployment of additional Jubbaland forces to Lower Juba.279 Federal-aligned forces, while no longer in control of any territory in Lower Juba,280 nonetheless remained involved in security operations in the region.281

Lower Juba was one of the regions with the highest numbers of reported IED incidents.282 Local authorities noted an increase in roadside bombs planted by Al-Shabaab to hinder movements of civilians and military forces.283 Civilians were among the casualties of IED explosions.284 In January 2026, amid an escalation of Al-Shabaab attacks on security forces across several regions, the group launched a major complex attack on bases of the Jubbaland regional forces in Koday,285 a strategic island town.286 Heavy fighting lasted between ‘more than 24 hours’287 and four days288 before the attackers were repelled by SNA and Jubbaland forces.289

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In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, ACLED recorded 500 security incidents in Lower Juba region, including battles, explosions/other forms of remote violence, and violence against civilians, causing 1 334 fatalities.302

Figure 13: Evolution of security events and fatalities in Lower Juba per month, based on ACLED data.303

In the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, the following actors (coded as either ‘Actor 1’ or ‘Actor 2’) were, among others, involved in security incidents: Al-Shabaab was involved in 350 security incidents against Military or Police Forces of Somalia (including 208 incidents against Jubbaland forces) and 70 incidents of violence against civilians.305

Illustrative security incidents

• In July 2025, four people were killed when a roadside bomb struck a civilian vehicle in the Bulo Xaji area.306

• On 26 November 2025, at least 21 civilians were killed in an unclaimed airstrike and/or ground operation in the Jamaame area.307

• On 21 January 2026, Al-Shabaab conducted a large-scale complex attack on one or more bases of the Jubbaland regional forces in Koday town. Al-Shabaab media claimed that 113 Jubbaland troops had been killed in the ensuing clashes,308 while ACLED pointed to reports estimating that over 80 soldiers had died in the attack.309 According to the MoD, the SNA, Jubbaland troops and international forces repelled the attack, allegedly killing more than 130 Al-Shabaab members.310

• Conflict-related displacement

According to the UNHCR PRMN, 34 081 individuals were newly displaced in Lower Juba region due to conflict or insecurity during the period from April 2025 to February 2026. The majority of them were displaced from areas located in Jamaame (25 629) and Badhaadhe (6 000) districts. Nearly all displacement in Lower Juba occurred within the same region (33 945). During the same period, 5 042 displaced individuals arrived in Lower Juba from other regions.311 The UN Panel of Experts held that over 90 % of conflict-related displacement recorded between September 2024 and October 2025 was linked to Al-Shabaab activities.312

Other impacts on civilian life and humanitarian situation

A December 2025 map by UNOCHA showed ‘heavy’ and ‘very heavy restrictions’ regarding humanitarian access in all of Jamaame and most of Kismayo, Badhaadhe and Afmadow districts. ‘Moderate restrictions’ were seen in central and western parts of Afmadow, in the western and northwestern edges of Badhaadhe, and along the coastal areas of Badhaadhe and Kismayo.313 2025 saw a further deterioration in humanitarian access in Lower Juba,314 with UNOCHA recording 25 humanitarian access incidents over the year. Road blockages, armed fighting and security incidents affecting humanitarian staff hampered access to parts of Lower Juba and delayed deliveries.315 As of January 2026, the IPC reported that about 50 % of the total analysed population of 1 204 269 were either in Acute Food Insecurity IPC Phase 2 (stressed, 31 %), 3 (crisis, 15 %) or 4 (emergency, 4 %).316 NRC recorded the eviction of 4 304 individuals in Lower Juba region in 2025 and early 2026.317