COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: October 2025
The information below is retrieved from the following EUAA COI report and query: Security 2025, 1.1., 1.2.1., 1.2.2.; COI Update 2025, 1., 2.; Country Guidance should not be referred to as a source of COI.
As of March 2025, Somalia remained deeply fragmented in terms of territorial control. Al-Shabaab controlled vast areas of South-Central Somalia and maintained influence across key routes and towns, including areas near Mogadishu. The group also retained presence in northern Somalia despite government offensives. Al-Shabaab has reversed many earlier losses and continued launching coordinated attacks, destabilizing contested regions and encircling Mogadishu. Additionally, in Sool and Sanaag regions, the SSC-Khatumo administration was declared in early 2023 and recognised officially by the FGS in April 2025. In March 2024, Puntland ceased recognition of the FGS and launched a counter- ISS campaign in Bari region. In November 2024, Jubbaland suspended ties with the FGS following a political dispute and has since asserted autonomous control over parts of Gedo.
The approximate areas of control and influence of the main actors are outlined in the map below. This map presents an indication and cannot be seen as an absolute representation of the situation in terms of spatial or temporal accuracy. The depictions on this map do not imply any opinion on the part of the EUAA concerning the legal status or effective control over any territory in the country.
Figure 1. Somalia - Approximate Territorial Control, 31 July 2025 by Political Geography Now (https://www.polgeonow.com).
Please note: The depictions on the above map do not imply any opinion whatsoever on the part of EUAA concerning legal status or effective control over any country, territory, city, or area. Every effort is made to ensure this map is free of errors, but there is no guarantee that the map or its features are either spatially or temporally accurate or fit for a particular use.
For more information on territorial control and/or presence of the actors of persecution or serious harm listed below, please refer to Assessment of indiscriminate violence and real risk per region.