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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.15, pp. 128-132]

Kabul Province was the most conflict-affected region in terms of recorded security incidents and fatalities in the reference period according ACLED, and in terms of civilian fatalities according to UCDP.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 309 security incidents in Kabul Province (average of 5 incidents per week) of which 146 were cases of violence against civilians, 102 explosions/remote violence, and 61 battles. 273 of the overall number of the security incidents in Kabul Province occurred in Kabul District.

According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 702 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

In the province overall, ACLED attributed 71 security incidents to the ISKP, 80 to unidentified armed groups, and 21 to the NRF. ACLED also reported 5 attacks on Taliban targets claimed by the NLFA, 3 by AFF, and 1 by the ALM.

UCDP recorded 124 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 459 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented seven civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents include armed clashes between the Taliban and NRF, attacks on the Taliban targets by NRF, NLFA, AFF and the Afghan Liberation Movement, fighting between Taliban forces and ISKP, an IED explosion at a roadside resulting in the death of one child and the injury of four members of the Taliban security forces and one abduction by unknown perpetrators.

According to UNOCHA, Kabul was among the provinces with the highest numbers of trauma-related injury cases and IDPs.

On 21 October 2021, an explosion in Shakardara District, reportedly claimed by ISKP, destroyed a power pylon and brought down electricity lines in Kabul Province leading to power outages in Kabul and other provinces, which were restored after four days.

The only displacement due to conflict that took place from Kabul Province was the displacement of 115 persons to Herat Province in August and September 2021. Between August and November 2021, 11 734 IDPs arrived in Kabul District from other provinces. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. IOM identified 93 631 IDP arrivals in Kabul Province in the period between August 2021 and December 2021.

Focus on the capital: Kabul City

[Security 2022, 4.1]

According to ACLED, Kabul City was the most conflict-affected area of Afghanistan. During the reference period, ACLED recorded 247 security incidents (average of 4 incidents per week), of which 113 were cases of violence against civilians, 95 remote violence, and 39 battles.

Most incidents were attributed to Taliban forces, ISKP and to unidentified armed group(s), with some incidents also attributed to NRF.According to UCDP, in the period between 16 August 2021 and 1 June 2022, Kabul City had the highest numbers of civilian fatalities (297 of overall 778 civilian fatalities in Afghanistan).

Examples of incidents attributed to the ISKP included attacks leading to high number of casualties, such as the attack at Kabul airport on 26 August 2021, resulting in 141-175 civilian fatalities and the suicide blast and gunfire at Kabul’s main military hospital on 2 November 2021, resulting in at least 25 deaths and dozen more injuries. Attacks targeting Shia mosques and Taliban security forces were also reported. ISKP also claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on a Sunni Mosque targeting Taliban leadership resulting in civilian casualties in October 2021, and an open fire attack on a Sikh Gurdwara half an hour before morning prayer time in mid-June 2022.

Battles between NRF and military and police Taliban forces, as well as NRF explosions/remote violence involving Taliban forces were reported.

The attacks by unknown perpetrators included bomb explosions or the throwing of grenades. Some of the attacks by unknown armed groups targeted mosques and Shia and/or Hazara neighbourhoods. On 29 April 2022, an explosion at the Khalifa Sahib Mosque frequented by Sufi worshippers on the last Friday of the Islamic month of Ramadan, resulted in 50 fatalities according to ACLED or in 66 civilian deaths according to UCDP. There were reports on targeting Hazara Shia community in western Kabul City, including bomb blasts into a High School and an Education center reportedly caused by IEDs, targeting civilian passenger vehicles, and reports on three attacks mainly targeting the Taliban, but also resulting in civilian casualties.

There were also reports on targeted violence by Taliban forces soon after the takeover, including revenge attacks, large-scale house-to-house raids of Taliban fighters looking for interpreters, foreign troops, embassy personnel, former government authorities, humanitarian workers, people holding a US special immigrant visa. On 19 January 2022, Taliban forces in Kabul reportedly carried out raids in houses of several women’s rights activists who had participated in demonstrations, some of whom were detained or became victims of enforced disappearance. Incidents of violence against journalists by unidentified armed groups were also reported.

Security concerns in Kabul City also include a rise in criminality, including gang robbing on a regular basis, extortion either directly or indirectly through Taliban fighters, abductions/forced disappearances, and kidnappings that occur on a daily basis.

The attack on Kabul airport resulted in serious damages ‘crucial for bringing in humanitarian supplies and for enabling post-airlift departures for Afghans vulnerable to Taliban reprisals’. In the beginning of September 2021, the airport reportedly reopened for domestic flights and the reception of international aid. During the reference period, attacks targeted schools and mosques in Kabul City.

115 persons were displaced due to conflict from Kabul District to Herat Province in August and September 2021. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. According to IOM, out of a total of 93 631 IDPs arriving in Kabul Province since August 2021, 74 169 IDPs reached Kabul District. Kabul District was identified as the district with the highest number of IDPs who had fled the province, amounting to 9 987 persons who had left the district since August 2021.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Kabul, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.