2.2.1. Bakool

Bakool, a rural region623 predominantly inhabited by agro-pastoralists,624 shares an international border with Ethiopia to the north and internal borders with the regions of Gedo to the west, Bay to the south, Hiraan to the east, and Lower Shabelle to the south-east. The region is divided into five districts: Xudur, Tayeeglow, Ceel Barde, Rab Dhuure, and Waajid. Its capital is Xudur.625

As of September 2024, sources variously estimated the population of Bakool region at 543 371 (IPC),626 and 392 347 (IOM).627 Bakool is mainly inhabited by various Rahanweyn groups, while the Jajele (Hawiye) are present in a small section in the north628 and the Aulihan (Ogaden/Darood) clan resides along both sides of the border with Ethiopia.629 For more detailed background information on Bakool region, see section 2.2.1. of the EUAA COI Report Somalia: Security Situation (February 2023).

 

 

Al-Shabaab control areas, presence and influence, along with other actors

Al-Shabaab remained in control of large swaths of the region’s territory.630 Bakool has been described as one of the country’s regions where Al-Shabaab’s grip was most strongly felt, including through blockades of humanitarian aid,631 heavy tax burdens632 and a high frequency of child abductions for recruitment purposes.633

According to Map 3 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 31 March 2025 and Map 2 Somalia – Approximate Territorial Control as of 1 April 2023, Al-Shabaab was in control of the towns of Rab Dhuure and Tayeeglow and of rural territories in eastern and south-eastern Bakool, including the surroundings of Tayeeglow and the region’s southeastern corner. During the reference period, Al-Shabaab added large rural swaths south-east of Rab Dhuure town to its realm of control. Meanwhile, the FGS coalition remained in control of a narrow stretch of rural territory in the region’s north delimited by the towns of Ceel Barde, Ato, and Yeed. Control over the remaining rural areas of Bakool region was mixed between Al-Shabaab and the FGS. The towns of Xudur, Waajid, Ceel Barde, Yeed, and Ato remained under the control of the FGS coalition.634 However, Al-Shabaab continued to hold sway over the territories surrounding Xudur635 and Waajid,636 keeping these towns in a state of siege.637

Meanwhile, the SNA units operating in the region included the 9th Brigade of the 60th division,638 stationed in the towns of Xudur639 and Waajid,640 and the 8th Brigade of the 60th Division.641 Xudur and Waajid also hosted bases of Ethiopian troops.642 During the reference period, the SNA regained control of several locations previously controlled by Al-Shabaab,643 including in the vicinity of Xudur town,644 and ended a blockade of the Xudur–Qurajome road.645

Conflict dynamics

Al-Shabaab continued to pose a significant threat in Bakool and other parts of southern Somalia.646 Notably, the region’s capital Xudur has been a ‘focal point’ in the persisting conflict between the SNA and Al-Shabaab.647

During the reference period, Al-Shabaab carried out multiple attacks against ATMIS troops in Waajid district (including in April/May 2023648 and January649 and October 2024650), Xudur district, and at the Somali-Ethiopian border in Rab Dhuure district (June 2023),651 while also launching attacks on the SNA (in Waajid in January652 and Ceel Barde in June 2024653) and South West State forces (in Waajid in March 2025).654

Notably, on 17 September 2023, the group ambushed convoys of Ethiopian ATMIS troops655 travelling from Yeed to Waajid and from Ceel Barde to Xudur.656 Various sides claimed that around 50 militants657 and 167 Ethiopian soldiers had been killed in the attacks and ensuing clashes, although these accounts could not be verified independently.658 The group further executed five individuals in Tayeeglow, accusing them of spying for the US and Ethiopian governments.659

Meanwhile, new operations against Al-Shabaab were announced in the South West State by the South West administration in July 2023660 and by the FGS in October 2023.661 These operations intensified in several instances, including in November-December 2023662 and over the spring663 and summer months of 2024.664 Multiple SNA operations focused on targeting Al-Shabaab hideouts in Waajid district (including in July 2023,665 March666 and December 2024,667 and March 2025668) and Xudur district (throughout the period from late 2023 to late 2024669), but were also reported along the Bakool–Bay border (December 2023).670 There were ensuing reports of clashes,671 dismantling of Al-Shabaab hideouts,672 and surrendering of defecting Al-Shabaab fighters.673 Following SNA operations in September 2024, tensions remained at heightened levels in the Xudur area as military and insurgent activities continued.674

The region further witnessed some airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab positions,675 including a strike by FGS forces in Wajid district that, according to Al-Shabaab, killed eight civilians.676 Moreover, clashes along clan lines between SNA and Dervish forces left at least 10 people dead in Ceel Barde,677 with further clan feuds were observed around Xudur.678

 

Security incidents, estimated civilian fatalities and casualties

Between 1 April 2023 and 21 March 2025, ACLED reported 284 security incidents in Bakool region, including battles, explosions, or other forms of remote violence and violence against civilians, causing 583 fatalities. Figure 11 below shows their evolution per type across the reference period.679 At district level, Xudur recorded the most security incidents (149 incidents), followed by Waajid (87 incidents) and Ceel Barde (26 incidents).680

Security events in Bakool

Figure 11. Evolution of ACLED security events coded ‘battles’, ‘explosions/remote violence’ and ‘violence against civilians’ between 1 April 2023 and 21 March 2025 in Bakool.681

ACLED recorded 277 incidents involving Al-Shabaab (coded as either ‘Actor 1’, ‘Associated Actor 1’, ‘Actor 2’, or ‘Associated Actor 2’). Of these incidents, 205 involved both Al-Shabaab and the Military or Police Forces of Somalia, including eight incidents involving Al-Shabaab and Southwest Special Police Forces.682

For incidents involving fatalities, including alleged civilian deaths, please see below an illustrative and non-exhaustive list:

  • on 17 September 2023, Al-Shabaab group ambushed convoys of Ethiopian ATMIS troops683 travelling from Yeed to Waajid and from Ceel Barde to Xudur.684 Various sides claimed that around 50 militants and 167 Ethiopian soldiers had been killed.685 These accounts could not be verified independently;686

  • on 22 September 2023, an airstrike carried out by FGS forces in Wajid district killed a prominent Al-Shabaab leader and his seven bodyguards (as claimed by Somali Ministry of Defence)687 or eight civilians (as claimed by Al-Shabaab).688

Conflict-related displacement

Between 1 April 2023 and 16 March 2025, 20 284 individuals were newly displaced from Bakool due to conflict or insecurity, according to the UNHCR PRMN. Of this group, 9 657 individuals were displaced within the same administrative region, while 10 627 individuals were displaced to other regions, including Bay, Benadir, Bari, Gedo, Galgaduud, Hiraan, and Nugal. At district level, Rab Dhuure was the most affected by individuals leaving for other regions (3 467), while Waajid was the only affected by displacement from other regions (3 510, all displaced from Gedo’s Luuq district in July 2024). Ceel Barde, by a wide margin, was the district most affected by intra-regional IDP departures to other locations within Bakool region (7 736, including 5 400 who were displaced in June 2023).689 For information on conflict-related displacement prior to April 2023, see section 2.2.1. of the EUAA COI Report Somalia: Security Situation (February 2023).

Other impacts on civilian life

UNOCHA recorded eight humanitarian access incidents in Bakool region between April and December 2023690 and one further incident over the year 2024.691 In August 2024, UNOCHA reported that Al-Shabaab blocked and controlled the main supply routes to Xudur town,692 restricting the flow of food and other commodities into the town to airlifted aid and items smuggled into the town by donkey carts.693

 

  • 623

    CSHRD, Somalia: 01/07/2024: – Human Rights Second Quarter Report 2024, 30 September 2024, url

  • 624

    Edle, A., Bay and Bakool: How Somalia’s Breadbasket turned into an Epicenter of Humanitarian Crisis, RVI, 2023, url

  • 625

    UNOCHA, Somalia Administrative Reference Map, as of 20 July 2023, url

  • 626

    IPC, Somalia Acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition analysis July – December 2024, 23 September 2024, url, p. 3

  • 627

    IOM, DTM Somalia – Baseline Assessment Dataset – Round 3 (February 2024 – September 2024), 3 December 2024, url

  • 628

    EASO, COI report - South and Central Somalia Country overview [clan maps based on Lewis 1955, Abikar 1999], August 2014, url, pp. 52-53

  • 629

    EASO, Somalia – Security Situation, September 2021, url, p. 67; EASO, COI report - South and Central Somalia Country overview [clan map based on Lewis 1955], August 2014, url, pp. 52

  • 630

    Halqabsi News, Somali Army Claims Success in Hudur City Operation, 6 July 2024, url

  • 633

    UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2024/129, 2 February 2024, url, para. 59

  • 634

    PolGeoNow, Somalia Approximate Territorial Control, as of 31 March 2025, n.a.; PolGeoNow, Somalia Approximate Territorial Control, as of 1 April 2023, n.a.

  • 635

    UNDP Somalia, How the Town of Hudur is Pioneering Resilience in Somalia, 30 April 2024, url

  • 636

    SG, Ethiopian military convoy ambushed in south Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 637

    UNOCHA, Somalia Situation Report (Last updated: 13 Aug 2024), 13 August 2024, url, p. 3; Halqabsi News, Somali Army Claims Success in Hudur City Operation, 6 July 2024, url; SG, Ethiopian military convoy ambushed in south Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 638

    Goobjoog, Somali National Army Crushes Al-Shabaab Militants in Bakool Region Operation, 15 March 2025, url; SMN, Somali Forces Strike Al-Shabaab in Major Operation Near Hudur, 21 September 2024, url

  • 639

    Halqabsi News, Somali Army Claims Success in Hudur City Operation, 6 July 2024, url

  • 640

    SONNA, Somali National Army Foils Khawarij Attacks and Landmine Plot in Wajid District, 21 March 2025, url

  • 641

    BBC Monitoring Africa, Programme Summary of Somalia's Radio Risalanews 16:00 GMT 7 Nov 24, 8 November 2024

  • 642

    VOA, Al-Shabab Attacks Ethiopian Military Convoys in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 643

    Halqabsi News, Somali Army Claims Success in Hudur City Operation, 6 July 2024, url; SONNA, Somali National Army defeats Khawarij in Bay and Bakool regions, 30 November 2023, url

  • 644

    Halqabsi News, Somali Army Claims Success in Hudur City Operation, 6 July 2024, url; Radio Dalsan, Somali military captures several key towns in Hiraan and Bakool regions as operations against the militants continue to intensify, 10 December 2023, url; SONNA, Somali Forces Launch Sweeping Operation Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, 29 November 2023, url

  • 645

    Hiiraan Online, Somali forces reclaim key road from Al-Shabaab in Bakool, 17 August 2024, url

  • 646

    International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Somalia: April 2023 – March 2025, n.d., url

  • 647

    Radio Dalsan, Security Forces Foil Alshabaab Attack in Hudur, Preventing Potential Mass Casualty Event, 17 October 2024, url

  • 648

    ACLED, Somalia: Al-Shabaab Regains Lost Territories as Tax Dispute Halts Counter-Insurgency Operation [Map], 2 June 2023, url

  • 649

    Radio Dalsan, Somali army kills Al-Shabaab fighters in fierce battle near Wajid in Bakool region, 14 January 2024, url

  • 650

    Garowe Online, Al-Shabaab Militants launch Attack on Ethiopian Military Base in Somalia, 12 October 2024, url

  • 651

    ACLED, Somalia: Political Turmoil Threatens the Fight Against Al-Shabaab [Map], 30 June 2023, url

  • 652

    Radio Dalsan, Somali army kills Al-Shabaab fighters in fierce battle near Wajid in Bakool region, 14 January 2024, url

  • 653

    Mogadishu24, Somali Army neutralizes 7 Al-Shabaab militants, 4 June 2024, url

  • 654

    SMN, Al-Shabaab Attacks Security Base in Waajid, Somali Forces Capture Key Operative, 21 March 2025, url

  • 655

    AA, Heavy casualties in clashes between al-Shabaab terrorists, Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 656

    VOA, Al-Shabab Attacks Ethiopian Military Convoys in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 657

    VOA, Al-Shabab Attacks Ethiopian Military Convoys in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url; AA, Heavy casualties in clashes between al-Shabaab terrorists, Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 658

    VOA, Al-Shabab Attacks Ethiopian Military Convoys in Somalia, 17 September 2023, url

  • 659

    Frontier Online, Al-Shabaab executes five men for espionage in Bakool region, 12 June 2023, url

  • 660

    Hiiraan Online, Somali Army kills 25 al-Shabab militants, including five foreign fighters in Bakool region, 26 July 2023, url

  • 661

    UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2024/129, 2 February 2024, url, para. 12

  • 662

    Radio Dalsan, Somali military captures several key towns in Hiraan and Bakool regions as operations against the militants continue to intensify, 10 December 2023, url; SONNA, Somali Forces Launch Sweeping Operation Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, 29 November 2023, url

  • 663

    Halqabsi News, SNA Intensifies Operations Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool, 29 April 2024, url

  • 664

    Mustaqbal Media, Somali Armed Forces Clash with Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, Capture Suspects, 21 September 2024, url

  • 665

    Hiiraan Online, Somali Army kills 25 al-Shabab militants, including five foreign fighters in Bakool region, 26 July 2023, url; SONNA, Somali National Army kills 25 Al-Shabaab militants near Wajid district, 25 July 2023, url

  • 666

    Mogadishu24, Government forces kill over 80 Al-Shabaab militants, 28 March 2024, url

  • 667

    SMN, SNA Dismantles Al-Shabaab Trenches in Bakool Region Operation – defense ministry, 19 December 2024, url

  • 668

    Goobjoog, Somali National Army Crushes Al-Shabaab Militants in Bakool Region Operation, 15 March 2025, url

  • 669

    BBC Monitoring, Programme Summary of Somalia's Radio Risala news 16:00 GMT 7 Nov 24, 8 November 2024; Mustaqbal Media, Somali Armed Forces Clash with Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, Capture Suspects, 21 September 2024, url; SMN, Somali National Army Strikes Blow Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool Operation, 24 July 2024, url; Halqabsi News, SNA Intensifies Operations Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool, 29 April 2024, url; Radio Dalsan, Somali military captures several key towns in Hiraan and Bakool regions as operations against the militants continue to intensify, 10 December 2023, url; SONNA, Somali Forces Launch Sweeping Operation Against Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, 29 November 2023, url; International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Somalia: April 2023 – March 2025, n.d., url

  • 670

    International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Somalia: April 2023 – March 2025, n.d., url

  • 671

    Mustaqbal Media, Somali Armed Forces Clash with Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, Capture Suspects, 21 September 2024, url; International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Somalia: April 2023 – March 2025, n.d., url

  • 672

    SMN, SNA Dismantles Al-Shabaab Trenches in Bakool Region Operation – defense ministry, 19 December 2024, url; Radio Dalsan, Somali military captures several key towns in Hiraan and Bakool regions as operations against the militants continue to intensify, 10 December 2023, url

  • 673

    SMN, Al-Shabaab fighters surrender to Somali government, 2 January 2024, url

  • 674

    SMN, Somali Forces Strike Al-Shabaab in Major Operation Near Hudur, 21 September 2024, url

  • 675

    SMN, Fresh Airstrikes Target Al-Shabaab in Bakool Region, 22 June 2024, url; Airwars, USSOM405, 22 September 2023, url

  • 676

    Airwars, USSOM405, 22 September 2023, url

  • 677

    Horn Observer, At least 10 killed as rival armed groups clash in Elbarde town of Somalia, 14 June 2023, url

  • 678

    BBC Monitoring, Programme Summary of Somalia’s Radio Risala news 16:00 GMT 19 Nov 24, 25 November 2024

  • 679

    EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2023 to 21 March 2025, as of 26 March 2025, url

  • 680

    EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2023 to 21 March 2025, as of 26 March 2025, url

  • 681

    EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2023 to 21 March 2025, as of 26 March 2025, url. Please note that data covering the entire month of March 2025 was not yet available during the drafting of this report.

  • 682

    EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, data covering 1 April 2023 to 21 March 2025, as of 26 March 2025, url

  • 687

    Halqabsi News, Targeted Airstrike Kills High-Ranking Al-Shabaab Leader in Bakool Region, 22 September 2023, url

  • 689

    UNHCR, PRMN Datafile – Somalia, as of 21 March 2025, url

  • 690

    UNOCHA, Somalia: Humanitarian Access Snapshot: October – December 2023, 1 January 2024, url, p. 1; UNOCHA, Somalia: Humanitarian Access Snapshot: July to September 2023, 2 November 2023, url, p. 1; UNOCHA, Somalia: Humanitarian Access Snapshot: April – June 2023, 25 July 2023, url, p. 1

  • 691

    UNOCHA, Somalia: Humanitarian Access Snapshot: January – December 2024 [Map], 22 January 2025, url, p. 2

  • 692

    UNOCHA, Somalia Situation Report (Last updated: 13 Aug 2024), 13 August 2024, url, p. 3

  • 693

    UNOCHA, Somalia Situation Report (Last updated: 13 Aug 2024), 13 August 2024, url, p. 3; UNDP Somalia, How the Town of Hudur is Pioneering Resilience in Somalia, 30 April 2024, url