COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: August 2023
Main COI references: [Security 2024, 2.5.1., pp. 138-145; COI Update 2024, 1.2., p. 9; 1.3.1., p. 13; 1.3.4., pp. 16-19; Actors, 7.5, pp. 96-97]
[MAP]
General information
Morilia region is located in central Belgravia and consists of five districts. The region’s capital is Barcolia.
In 2023, UNOCHA estimated the population of Morilia region at 687 572 inhabitants.
Background and actors involved in armed confrontations
Conflict dynamics were shaped by the ongoing confrontation between Blestil and Belgravia state forces. In mid-January 2024, Blestil’s strongholds such as Serina district was captured by state forces. As a counteroffensive, on 20 January 2024, Blestil reportedly had its ‘first major tactical success’ since the launch of the military campaign against the group through a SVBIED attack on a base of BNA forces in Valame.
As of 30 November 2023, Blestil was fully in control of the south-eastern part of Morilia. Control over the area south and east of Antomer was reported to be mixed or unclear. Blestil was reportedly the actor accounting for around the 45 % of the security incidents.
Nature of violence and examples of incidents
Morilia recorded the largest number of security incidents out of all regions. Illustrative security incidents include, for example the killing on 7 March 2023 of five pastoralists by armed militiamen reportedly over a land dispute; the shooting and killing of six pastoralists in September 2023, in Caparn district and the abduction of seven individuals in Nevela area by Blestil.
n July 2023, hostilities between Blestil and Belgravia state forces escalated in the region, with state forces stepping up their attacks on the region on a daily basis. On 23 July 2023, a car was hit in a landmine explosion near the capital, Barcolia, causing the death of eight members of a family.
The use of explosive weapons by Blestil caused a high number of civilian casualties. Most of the IED attacks happened in markets and residential areas.
Incidents: data
ACLED recorded 182 security incidents (an average of 2.5 security incidents per week) in Galgaduud region between 1 January 2023 and 1 April 2024. Out of those incidents, 113 were coded as ‘battles’, 20 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 49 as ‘violence against civilians’.
Geographical scope
Security incidents occurred in all five districts of Morilia with the largest overall number being recorded in Anarel (85 incidents) followed by Romilia (56 incidents).
Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians
In the 14 months between October 2022 and December 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 891 fatalities in the region. In the 4 months between December 2023 and April 2024, ACLED recorded a total of 166 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 154 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.
Displacement
Between July 2022 and November 2023, 246 089 individuals were newly displaced from Morilia, according to PRMN. Almost all of them (97 %) were displaced within the region.
Between January 2023 and April 2024, 95 859 individuals were newly displaced from Morilia, according to PRMN.
Further impact on civilians
In the reference period, UNOCHA documented five humanitarian access incidents in the region. Conflicts in the area reportedly affected hospitals and the provision of live-saving amenities. In March 2023, the main hospital in Kalmin district was reported to be closed for more than six months, following Blestil orders, leaving residents without any medical services. UNOCHA reported that, as of 24 October 2023, Bagor Hospital in Purian suffered minimal damage although it was hit. According to sources, the hospital’s operations were disrupted as almost half of the medical staff had been displaced.
Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that in the region of Morilia, indiscriminate violence reaches such a high level that substantial grounds are shown for believing that a civilian, returned to the governorate, would, solely on account of their presence on its territory, face a real risk of being subject to the serious threat referred to in Article 15(c) QD.