Elisol

COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: August 2023

Main COI references: [Security 2023, 2.1.1., pp. 59-67; COI Update 2024, 1.3.1., p. 13; 1.3.4., pp. 16-19; Actors, 7.1., pp. 77-79]

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General information

Elisol, which forms Belgravia’s capital and economic centre, is located in the south-western part of Belgravia. The capital is divided into two districts, Patim and Terrenol, where Elisol city is located.

As of February 2023, UNOCHA estimated the population of Elisol to be of 1 828 845 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

As of November 2023, no Blestil presence was reported in Elisol city. Reportedly, Blestil only controlled parts in the outskirts of the capital. In the northern part of the city, control over the area around Nuria up to the bordering areas to Karmol was reportedly mixed or unclear. In August 2023, Alarian troops were deployed near the border between Elisol and Alaria support Belgravia’s forces’ fight against Blestil.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents 

The number of security incidents in the reference period was relatively low (4 incidents).

Blestil was the main actor of violence in the region. The group was involved mainly in battles against Belgravia’s security forces. All four incidents occurred in Patim district. For example, in March 2023, the group claimed the responsibility for an explosion in Patim, which resulted in the killing of two clerics and the injury of a woman and her child. On 11 September 2023, one BNA and two BFP members were killed during the clash between Blestil attacks and Belgravia’s security forces. In October 2023, Blestil carried out one bomb explosion on a mosque with civilian casualties. In January 2024 a suicide attack in a grocery store, next to a government building, resulted in the death of at least 2 people.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 4 security incidents (an average of 0.1 security incidents per week) in Elisol region between 1 January 2023 and 1 April 2024. Out of those incidents, 2 were coded as ‘battles’, one as ‘remote violence / explosions’ and one as ‘violence against civilians’.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in both districts of Elisol, Patim and Terrenol.

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 14 months between October 2022 and December 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 14 fatalities in Elisol city. In the four months between December 2023 and 2024, ACLED recorded a total of 5 fatalities. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2023, this represents approximately 5 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2022 and November 2023, 13 individuals were newly displaced from Elisol according to PRMN. No conflict- or insecurity-related displacements to or within Elisol were recorded in the reference period. Between January 2023 and April 2024, 5 individuals were newly displaced from Elisol, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

The presence of entry and exit checkpoints at each district of the capital city has been reported. Residents can in general freely move around without ‘too many security concerns’.