Latest Asylum Trends: Monthly Overview

Against this backdrop, trends among the main citizenships show divergent trajectories, with some groups declining markedly over the past two years, while others have remained stable or increased.

Afghan nationals lodged around 7,300 applications in February 2026, remaining the largest applicant group in the EU+. Over the past two years, rising Afghan applications in the second half of 2025 were linked to applications lodged by Afghan women already present in the EU+, following policy and jurisprudential clarifications regarding their protection needs. As a result, a significant share of recent Afghan applications consists of repeated claims, indicating that part of the volume is driven by applicants already present in the EU+, rather than new arrivals alone.

Venezuelans were the second largest group, with approximately 7,000 applications. Over the past two years, Venezuelan applications have shown an upward trend. They are overwhelmingly first-time applications, potentially reflecting a sustained pattern of new arrivals primarily to Spain, rather than repeat claims.

Bangladeshis lodged around 3,600 applications, ranking third in February 2026. Over the last two years, applications from citizens of Bangladesh have fluctuated from month to month but overall trends have been relatively stable with some signals of a decline. As with Venezuelans, the vast majority of applications are first-time, suggesting that these flows are primarily linked to newly arrived individuals.

Turkish nationals submitted approximately 2,000 applications. Over the past two years, Turkish applications have shown a downward trend following a peak in late 2023, and have remained at lower levels throughout 2025 and early 2026.

In contrast, Syrian applications have declined sharply over the past two years, from a peak in 2024 to fewer than 2,000 applications in February 2026. This represents the most pronounced decrease among the main citizenships and is a key factor underlying the overall reduction in applications at EU+ level. Unlike previous years, Syrians now account for a relatively small share of the total asylum inflow.

Other citizenships within the top 20, including Sudanese, Colombians and Peruvians, contributed smaller volumes and reflect a range of more moderate trends.

Overall, the top 20 citizenships accounted for 71% of all applications in February 2026, meaning that developments within these groups largely determine the overall trajectory. The decline in asylum applications observed over the past two years is primarily driven by reduced volumes among previously dominant citizenships, particularly Syrians, while other groups have either remained stable or increased. At the same time, important differences persist in the nature of applications, notably between citizenships characterised by first-time applications and those with a significant share of repeated claims, which continue to shape the EU+ asylum landscape.

Iran

Iranian nationals lodged just over 670 applications in February 2026, ranking 27th among all citizenships and remaining a relatively small contributor to the overall EU+ asylum inflow. While applications by Iranian nationals show considerable month-to-month variation, the overall pattern over the past 24 months indicates a gradual decline followed by a period of relative stability. Even at their highest levels in recent years, applications by Iranian nationals have remained modest in comparison to other major citizenships. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, there is no indication at this stage of a renewed increase either in asylum applications or detections of illegal crossings at the EU external border (Frontex), and so at the present time Iranian applications continue to represent a marginal share of total EU+ applications.

A key question is whether the current conflict could generate a different dynamic and lead to significant flows towards the EU+. While there are important differences between the current context and historical periods of instability, comparisons may still provide useful context. For example, Iranian applications did increase following large-scale government crackdowns towards the end of 2022, but there is no way of knowing if the applications were specifically related to persecution at home. Plus, the increase was gradual rather than abrupt and remained limited in scale compared to other major displacement crises. Not only that, but applications quickly returned to baseline levels, suggesting that, while Iranian asylum flows may respond to intensified repression, they have not historically resulted in sustained or large-scale movements towards the EU+. That said, given Iran’s large population of around 90 million, even a relatively small proportion seeking protection in the EU+ could translate into substantial application volumes in a short period of time.

At EU+ level, developments among the main citizenships show a clear divergence between increasing and declining groups. Among the largest citizenships, Afghan applications increased substantially (+39%), while Venezuelan applications also rose but more moderately (+13%). In contrast, Syrian applications declined sharply (-76%), representing by far the most significant reduction and underpinning the overall decrease in asylum applications at EU level.

Several other citizenships also recorded notable increases. Sudanese applications nearly doubled (+90%), while more moderate increases were observed among Malians (+18%), Somalis (+12%), Congolese (DR) (+11%) and Haitians (+11%). These increases, however, were not sufficient to offset the substantial declines among previously dominant groups.

Indeed, many citizenships recorded decreases over the two reporting periods. In addition to Syrians, Colombians (-60%), Turks (-38%), Peruvians (-30%), Ukrainians (-28%) and Nigerians (-26%) all lodged fewer applications compared to the previous 12 months. Several other citizenships, including Pakistanis (-19%), Moroccans (-17%) and Guineans (-17%), also declined more moderately, contributing to the overall downward trend.

While EU-level trends provide an overall picture, important differences emerge across the main receiving countries.

In Germany, the most notable development was a sharp increase in Afghan applications (+111%), contrasting with substantial declines among other major groups, including Syrians (-75%) and Turks (-49%). Several other citizenships also declined, indicating a broad-based reduction across multiple groups. The rise in Afghan applications was particularly driven by repeated applicants.

In France, trends were more mixed, with increases among Afghans (+13%), Somalis (+36%), Sudanese (+25%), Congolese (DR) (+14%) and Haitians (+11%), while numbers for several other citizenships declined, including Ukrainians (-30%), Bangladeshis (-30%) and Pakistanis (-28%).

In Spain, trends were largely shaped by Latin American citizenships, with Venezuelans increasing further (+17%), while Colombians declined sharply (-67%). At the same time, Malian (+44%) and Somali (+212%) applications increased, although from lower bases, while several other citizenships declined markedly.

In Italy, most major citizenships recorded declines, including Bangladeshis (-16%), Pakistanis (-16%), Moroccans (-18%) and Malians (-57%), while some increases were observed among Egyptians (+15%) and Indians (+24%).

In Greece, trends were characterised by strong increases among specific citizenships, notably Sudanese (+483%) and Bangladeshis (+256%), alongside more moderate increases among Egyptians (+11%). At the same time, Syrian applications declined sharply (-87%), contributing to a shift in the composition of applicants.

Overall, while a number of citizenships recorded increases over the past 12 months, these were outweighed by substantial declines among previously dominant groups, particularly Syrians. As a result, the overall trajectory of asylum applications in the EU+ remains downward, with trends varying significantly across both citizenships and receiving countries.

Among the largest citizenships, 54% of all Afghan applications were lodged in Germany, followed by France (14%) and Greece (11%). Bangladeshi applications were concentrated mainly in Italy (59%) and Greece (29%), while 67% of Egyptian applications were lodged in Italy. Syrians also continued to apply mainly in Germany (55%), while Ukrainians sought asylum primarily in France (53%), followed by Poland (15%). Furthermore, 65% of Pakistani applications were lodged in Italy, 59% of Guinean applications in France, 55% of Colombian applications in Spain, and 48% of Moroccan applications in Italy.

In contrast, some citizenships were more dispersed across several EU+ countries. For example, Somali applications were spread more broadly, with 28% lodged in Germany, 18% in France and 13% in Ireland.

The strongest concentrations were observed among several citizenships, where the vast majority of applications were lodged in a single EU+ country. This was particularly evident for Haitians, of whom 99% applied in France, and Venezuelans, of whom 95% applied in Spain. Similarly high concentrations were observed for Peruvians in Italy (83%), Malians in Spain (82%), Ivorians in France (81%), and Congolese (DR) in France (75%).

Overall, the data show that asylum applications in the EU+ are not only concentrated in a small number of receiving countries, but that many of the main citizenships also display very strong destination-specific patterns, often with most applications being lodged in a single Member State.

Italy and Ireland, despite receiving vastly different numbers of applications in total (around 11,000 and 1,000, respectively), experienced similar per capita pressure, each country with around 188 applications per million inhabitants. This illustrates how per capita analysis provides a more comparable measure of the relative pressure on national asylum systems.

Among the EU+ countries, Greece recorded by far the highest number of applications relative to its population, with 379 applications per million inhabitants (around 1 in 2,600 people), placing it well above all other countries.

Several others also recorded relatively high levels. Spain (216 per million), Italy (188) and Ireland (188) all received substantially more applications relative to their population size than the EU+ average. Belgium (165), France (159) and Switzerland (172) also stood above the EU+ average.

In contrast, Germany, while receiving one of the largest numbers of applications in absolute terms, recorded 123 applications per million inhabitants, broadly in line with the EU+ average.

At the lower end of the distribution, several countries received very few applications relative to their population size. This was particularly evident in Hungary (1 per million), as well as Slovakia (2) and Romania (3). Other countries, including Lithuania (4), Portugal (9), Bulgaria (10) and Czechia (10), also recorded very low levels.

Overall, while asylum applications remain concentrated in a limited number of countries in absolute terms, the per capita perspective highlights a different distribution of relative pressure, with some countries — notably Greece — receiving a disproportionately higher number of applications relative to their population size.