3
 Recognition Rates

Main citizenships

Over the past three years, the recognition rate—which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants granted refugee status or subsidiary protection—has fluctuated around 40% at first instance, with refugee status usually being granted more frequently than subsidiary protection.

After a significant drop earlier in the year, the recognition rate for Syrians has since begun to recover. Importantly, this fluctuation does not reflect changing criteria for granting international protection. Rather, the earlier decline was largely driven by procedural factors. In countries that partially suspended the processing of Syrian cases, decisions were still issued in limited scenarios—such as when an assessment of the situation in Syria was not required, particularly for applicants already granted protection elsewhere in the EU+ (e.g., Belgium, Germany). Furthermore, many Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications (1,200 in September 2025) which is, in some EU+ countries, counted as a negative decision. These developments likely signal evolving intentions among Syrian applicants, including the possibility of return in light of recent political changes. Read the EUAA Syria Country Guidance, which provides an analysis of the main risk profiles in Syria after the fall of Assad's regime and the EUAA Syria Country Focus report, which provides an updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including procedural effects, and various other characteristics. Recognition rates for different nationalities can vary significantly. For example, Sudanese applicants have a recognition rate of around 70%, while nationals from Guinea have rates around 30% and Turks around 15%.

While many recognition rates remain fairly stable over time, there are notable exceptions to this general pattern:

  • Afghanistan: The recognition rate has been around 60% but has recently increased to 77% with most decisions granting refugee status.

  • Iraq: The recognition rate has been on the decline from nearly 60% in September 2020 to just 13% in September 2025.

 

 

Context

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan are often granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative asylum decisions in these statistics. Also, the recognition rates presented here are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and thus do not account for cases decided by the judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance; i.e., in appeal and review.

Across the EU+

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries. For more information, read the EUAA Pilot Convergence Analysis which focuses on the main factors leading to variations in recognition rates as well as on measures to achieve greater convergence.

Irrespective of underlying causes, this chart illustrates recognition rates across the EU+ for various citizenships. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different issuing countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate—namely, the percentage of decisions that granted refugee status or subsidiary protection.

Between July and September 2025, the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans stood at 71%, although as illustrated in the chart, recognition rates varied significantly across receiving countries (leftmost column of black circles). Germany, which processed the largest number of Afghan asylum applications (represented by the largest circle, labelled), had a recognition rate of 66%. In contrast, Austria granted protection to 83% of Afghan cases while this was 100% in Greece. To visualise some of the discussed decision-making practices, click here for an interactive chart, and to learn more read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan and EUAA Country Focus on Afghanistan.

Between July and September 2025, the EU+ recognition rate for Somalis stood at 49%, although as illustrated in the chart, recognition rates varied significantly across receiving countries. Germany, which processed the largest number of Somali asylum applications (represented by the largest circle, labelled), had a recognition rate of 35% for international protection. In contrast, Switzerland granted international protection to 88% of Somali cases, compared to just 34% in Belgium. To visualise some of the discussed decision-making practices, click here for an interactive chart, and to learn more read EUAA Country Guidance Somalia, which provides an analysis of the main risk profiles and the security situation in Somalia.

 

 

≤20% Recognition rates

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim of the border procedure is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. People in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedure Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348.

In September 2025, some 43% of applications were lodged by citizenships that had recognition rates of 20% or less in 2024 (low-recognition-rate citizenships). This estimation was calculated using EUAA data, plus to ensure statistical reliability, our calculations excluded citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions in 2024. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is small, a few additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.

The chart above shows the main citizenships that applied for asylum during the first half of 2025, separated into whether or not they fall into the category of having a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2024. Nationalities visualised in the chart capture three quarters (75%) of all applications lodged in September 2025.

In the context of asylum, the term 'safe country' refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their people. In April 2025, the European Commission published a proposal of seven countries of origin considered safe at the Union level, which will apply to all EU Member States if approved by the European Parliament and the Council. In practice, the application of this list means Member States will use an accelerated procedure to individually assess asylum applications from nationals of these countries. The proposed list of safe countries of origin includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia which together accounted for 16% of all applications lodged during the first half of 2025. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 22, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.