3
 Recognition Rates

Main citizenships

Key facts (Maty 2026)

 

  • In May 2026, the EU+ recognition rate remained around 30%, broadly stable compared with recent months and slightly below the rates recorded during the autumn of 2025. 
  • Around 13,000 decisions granted refugee status and 6,500 granted subsidiary protection, while around 45,000 decisions were negative. 
  • Recognition rates remained high for several main citizenships, including Malians (88%), Haitians (80%), Afghans (74%) and Sudanese (60%). 
  • Recognition rates remained very low for several high-volume citizenships, including Venezuelans, Bangladeshis and Egyptians, each at 2%. 
  • The recognition rate for Syrians remained low by historical standards, at 27%, reflecting the changed outcome of Syrian decisions compared with previous years. 

The recognition rate reflects the percentage of asylum applicants that receive decisions granting either refugee status or subsidiary protection at first instance. In May 2026, the EU+ recognition rate stood at 30%, broadly stable compared with April and March and in line with the levels recorded since the end of 2025, though slightly below the rates observed during the autumn of 2025. EU+ countries issued around 64,000 first instance decisions, fewer than in April. These included around 13,000 decisions granting refugee status, 6,500 granting subsidiary protection and 45,000 negative decisions. 

The fall in the EU+ recognition rate compared with much of 2024 was closely linked to developments in decision making on Syrian cases. Initially, the decline reflected a sharp reduction in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who had previously accounted for a large number of positive decisions. Immediately following the regime change in Syria, many EU+ countries temporarily paused or limited the processing of Syrian claims pending greater clarity on the situation in the country. This reduced the number of decisions feeding into the overall EU+ recognition rate and therefore contributed to the decline. More recently, more Syrian cases have been processed, but a lower proportion have resulted in protection, where applicants were assessed as no longer being in need of international protection. In May 2026, Syrians received around 6,900 first instance decisions, with a recognition rate of 27%.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including citizenship mix, case composition, procedural factors between receiving countries and ultimately the types of decisions issued. Recognition rates for different citizenships can vary significantly. In May 2026, they were high for Malians (88%) and Haitians (80%), with most positive decisions granting subsidiary protection. Recognition rates were also high for Afghans (74%), where most positive decisions granted refugee status, as well as for Sudanese (60%). Somalis (48%), Chinese (46%) and Ukrainians (45%) also had recognition rates above the EU+ level.

At the same time, several main citizenships continued to have very low recognition rates. In May 2026, the recognition rate was 2% for Venezuelans, Bangladeshis and Egyptians. Recognition rates were also relatively low for Peruvians (4%), Moroccans (6%), Georgians (7%), Nigerians (13%), Sri Lankans (14%), Pakistanis (15%), Colombians (16%), Congolese (DR) (18%) and Turks (20%).

Among the main citizenships, several recent changes should be interpreted cautiously. 

  • Afghans continued to have a high recognition rate, at 74% in May, broadly stable compared with recent months and still much higher than in the first half of 2025. Most positive decisions for Afghans continued to grant refugee status. 
  • Syrian recognition rates remained far below the levels consistently seen before the fall of Assad, although the rate increased from 18% in April to 27% in May. 
  • Sudanese applicants also continued to receive positive decisions in a substantial share of cases. Across the 24-month period shown, the Sudanese recognition rate has generally remained high, but the composition of positive decisions has shifted: since late 2025, refugee status has accounted for a larger share of positive decisions than subsidiary protection. 
  • Somalis continued to have a recognition rate of around 50%, while recognition rates for Venezuelans, Bangladeshis, Egyptians, Moroccans and Peruvians remained low and relatively stable. 
  • The recognition rate for Ukrainians declined from 59% in April to 45% in May, but remained above the overall EU+ recognition rate. 

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela, and to a lesser extent from other citizenships, may be granted national rather than international forms of protection. These national statuses are not regulated at EU level and are therefore counted as negative decisions in these statistics. The recognition rates presented here are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not include cases decided at appeal or review.

Across the EU+

Key facts (March to May 2026)

 

  • In the latest three-month period, March to May 2026, recognition rates continued to vary considerably across EU+ countries for some citizenships, while being more consistent for others. 
  • Recognition rates were relatively high in several main decision-issuing countries for Afghans, although lower rates were recorded in some countries with smaller or more moderate decision volumes. 
  • Recognition rates were relatively low across several EU+ countries for Bangladeshis, Egyptians, Moroccans, Peruvians, Georgians, Nigerians and Pakistanis. 
  • The widest variation was visible for Syrians, Ukrainians, Somalis, Sudanese, Malians, Turks and Chinese, where sizeable decision volumes were issued in countries with substantially different recognition rates. 
  • Differences between EU+ countries should be interpreted cautiously, as they may reflect case composition, national practices, procedural factors and other relevant differences, not only divergent decision making.

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries. However, they should be interpreted cautiously, because differences can also reflect case composition, national practices, procedural factors and other characteristics of the applications being decided.

Irrespective of underlying causes, the chart illustrates first instance recognition rates across the EU+ for selected citizenships during the latest three-month period, March to May 2026. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different EU+ countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate. The use of a three-month period helps to smooth out short-term fluctuations, while very small decision volumes have been excluded from the chart to reduce sensitivity to small numbers.

Some citizenships had relatively high recognition rates in the main decision-issuing countries. For Afghans, the largest number of decisions was issued by Germany, with around 16,000 decisions and a recognition rate of 80%. Other sizeable decision volumes were issued in France, Greece, Switzerland and Austria, with recognition rates ranging from 63% to 82%. Lower recognition rates were recorded in some other countries, but generally with smaller decision volumes than Germany, France or Greece. 

Other citizenships had relatively low recognition rates across several EU+ countries. For Bangladeshis, most decisions were issued in Italy, with around 9,300 decisions and a recognition rate of 2%. Recognition rates were also low in Greece, where around 1,400 decisions were issued and the recognition rate was below 1%, and in France, where around 1,100 decisions were issued and the recognition rate was 13%. Egyptians also had low recognition rates in the main decision-issuing countries, especially Italy and Greece, where most decisions were issued. Low recognition rates were also visible for Moroccans, Peruvians, Georgians, Nigerians and Pakistanis across several countries. Venezuelans also had a very low recognition-rate pattern in volume-weighted terms, because most decisions were issued in Spain, where the recognition rate was below 1%. Higher rates were recorded in Italy and France, but these countries issued far fewer decisions than Spain. Even in such cases, low recognition rates should not be read as meaning that all applications are unfounded, since different applicant profiles may be concentrated in different EU+ countries and all applications require individual assessment.

The widest variation was visible for citizenships where sizeable numbers of decisions were issued in countries with substantially different recognition rates. For example: 

  • Syrians had low recognition rates in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Cyprus, but much higher rates in Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland.

  • Ukrainians had high recognition rates in France and Italy, but low rates in Poland, Germany, Norway and some other countries. 

  • Somalis showed a broad continuum of recognition rates across EU+ countries. Recognition rates were highest in Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Austria, while more moderate rates were recorded in France, Ireland and Germany, and lower rates in the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece and Cyprus.

  • Sudanese had high recognition rates in Greece, Germany, the Netherlands and several other countries, but a lower rate in France, which also issued a sizeable number of decisions. 

  • Malians had very high recognition rates in Spain and Italy, but a lower rate in France, where a meaningful number of decisions was also issued. 

  • Chinese applicants had high recognition rates in France, but much lower rates in Germany and Italy, which also issued sizeable numbers of decisions.

Taken together, the data show that recognition rates are relatively consistent for some citizenships but highly variable for others. This variation is relevant to EUAA’s convergence work, but it should not be interpreted mechanically. Differences in recognition rates may reflect differences in applicant profiles, evidence, procedural circumstances, national practices and other factors, as well as possible differences in the interpretation and application of protection standards.

≤20% Recognition rates

Key facts - May 2026

 

  • In May 2026, around 56% of all applications were lodged by citizenships with a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2025. 

  • The largest low-recognition-rate citizenships in May were Venezuelans, with around 4,600 applications and a 2025 recognition rate of 2%, followed by Bangladeshis, with around 3,000 applications and a recognition rate of 3%. 

  • Other sizeable low-recognition-rate citizenships included Egyptians, with around 1,900 applications and a recognition rate of 3%, Turks, with around 1,800 applications and a recognition rate of 12%, and Pakistanis, with around 1,600 applications and a recognition rate of 13%.

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of 12 June 2026 applies to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. Applicants in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedure Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348 and a recent EUAA Practical Guide on the Asylum Border Procedure.

In May 2026, around 56% of all applications were lodged by citizenships with recognition rates of 20% or less in 2025. This estimation was calculated using an official Eurostat list of 2025 recognition rates. 

Among the main citizenships shown in the chart, the largest low-recognition-rate group was Venezuelans, with around 4,600 applications in May and a recognition rate of 2% in 2025. They were followed by Bangladeshis, with around 3,000 applications and a recognition rate of 3%, Egyptians, with around 1,900 applications and a recognition rate of 3%, Turks, with around 1,800 applications and a recognition rate of 12%, and Pakistanis, with around 1,600 applications and a recognition rate of 13%. Other low-recognition-rate citizenships shown in the chart included Moroccans with around 1,400 applications and a recognition rate of 5%, Peruvians with around 1,300 and a recognition rate of 2%, Colombians and Georgians with around 1,100 each and recognition rates of 5% and 6%, respectively, and Congolese (DR) with around 990 and a recognition rate of 16%.

In the context of asylum, the term “safe country” refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their nationals. On 23 February 2026, the Council adopted the first EU-wide list of safe countries of origin, designating Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo,* Morocco and Tunisia as safe countries of origin at Union level. EU accession candidate countries are also included, unless specific exclusion criteria apply, including an EU-wide recognition rate above 20%. In practice, the application of this list means that Member States may process asylum applications from nationals of these countries in an accelerated procedure, while still conducting an individual assessment of each application. Together, these countries accounted for 24% of all applications lodged in May 2026. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 24, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts, for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.