Latest Asylum Trends: January - June 2025

This remarkable reduction is hardly due to policy changes in the EU+. While it is true that most EU+ countries have (fully or partially) suspended processing Syrian asylum applications until the situation in Syria becomes clearer, they are still accepting new claims. Instead, with the new Syrian authorities advocating for stability and reconstruction, many displaced Syrians have evidently become more hopeful about returning to rebuild their communities, making some less inclined to seek asylum in the EU+. UNHCR estimates that by July 2025 nearly three quarters of a million Syrians had returned since the fall of Assad, mostly from surrounding countries. However, some Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in Europe might be less optimistic: UNHCR survey shows that over 80% do not intend to return to Syria in the next year. In Germany, where most Syrians applied for asylum, a relatively small number have left and returned to Syria. EUAA Surveys The survey sample includes about 670 responses from Syrians: 340 before the fall of the Assad regime (March 2024 – 8 December 2025) and 330 after (9 December 2024 – 26 June 2025). with Asylum-related Migrants indicate that both before and after the fall of the Assad regime, Syrians in the EU+ viewed advances in the security situation and personal freedom as the key areas that would need to improve for them to consider returning home. After 9 December 2024, other areas gained prominence, most notably financial conditions and employment but also access to basic services, education and medical care.

For updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, read two EUAA Syria Country Focus reports from July 2025, and March 2025, and for an analysis of the main profiles in Syria read EUAA’s interim Syria Country Guidance. Also watch the EUAA Country Talk: Syria for a discussion of Country information and Country Guidance.

In contrast, Venezuelan applications continued to increase. In the first half of 2025, approximately 49,000 Venezuelans applied for asylum in the EU+, a 31% rise from the same period in 2024, continuing an upward trend that has placed Venezuelans among the top global displaced populations. Spain remains the main destination, receiving the majority of Venezuelan claims due to shared language, existing diaspora and a practice of granting national humanitarian protection to those who do not qualify as refugees.

Multiple factors are likely driving the rise in Venezuelan applications. Venezuela’s deep economic and political crisis persists, with millions already displaced across Latin America — including 2.8 million in Colombia, 1.7 million in Peru, and hundreds of thousands in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. Changes to US migration policy implemented in early 2025 have significantly impacted migration dynamics across the region and have created significant obstacles to access to international protection. Return movements have increased but some countries in the region have reinstated or imposed visa requirements and so many Venezuelans are stranded in countries other than their own. Overall, it is unsurprising that Venezuelans are looking at protection options in the EU+, especially given their visa-free status and cultural ties with Spain.

While Venezuelan asylum trends have shifted rapidly in the past few years, Afghans have long had a significant presence in the EU+ asylum landscape. In the first half of 2025, they lodged 42,000 applications — accounting for just over 10% of all applications — a level broadly consistent with the stable trend observed over the past year. While the number of Afghans applying for asylum was well below levels seen in recent years, they still ranked second among all citizenships seeking asylum. Irregular arrival patterns mirror these figures: Afghans were the most detected nationality on the Eastern Mediterranean route, while nearly a fifth of their asylum applications were lodged in Greece. Nevertheless, Germany received the largest share at 35%. Read an EUAA Country Focus report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, plus Country Guidance, which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

For the last three years, significant numbers of Bangladeshis have been seeking asylum in the EU+, sometimes submitting more than 4,000 applications in a single month. During the first half of 2025, Bangladeshis lodged 17,000 applications — somewhat fewer compared to the same period in 2024 but still placing them fourth among all citizenships. Three quarters of these applications were lodged in Italy, where repeated applications were extremely rare, indicating that the applicants had recently arrived in the EU+. This aligns with detections at the external border, which show that during the same period Bangladeshis were the most frequently detected nationality in illegal border-crossings via the Central Mediterranean Route, pointing to a strong link between asylum applications and arrivals in Italy. Read the EUAA Country Focus report for an overview of human rights, security and socioeconomic under the interim government in Bangladesh.

In the autumn of 2023, Turkish nationals suddenly sought international protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers, briefly ranking second among all citizenships applying for asylum. This surge, centred on Germany was likely driven by several factors, including flight of political dissidents. While the surge was short-lived — with applications falling to 17,000 in the first half of 2025, down by 41% from the same period in 2024 — Turks still ranked fifth among all citizenships. The recent arrests of  political opponents, including the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu, suggest continued political instability in Türkiye. Application patterns point to a mix of regular and irregular arrivals: in the first half of 2025, Turks were the most detected nationality on the Western Balkan route, while in 2024, around one million Turkish nationals were issued Schengen visas, mostly by Greece and Germany. Read the EUAA Roadmap for Cooperation between the EUAA and Türkiye.

Despite being eligible for temporary protection, growing numbers of Ukrainians have also applied for international protection in the EU+ over the past years, although such applications remain far below registrations for temporary protection. In the first half of 2025, Ukrainians lodged 16,000 asylum applications — up by 29% compared to the same period in 2024 — making them the sixth most common citizenship seeking asylum in the EU+. This increase was reflected in France, which accounted for nearly half of all applications, and also in Poland with almost one third (see chart). However, on a month-to-month basis, applications fell between January and June 2025, with volumes by June returning to levels similar to early 2024. See also the section on Migrants from Ukraine.

Thousands of people have been killed in conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while many more have been forced to flee their homes. In June 2025, there was an US-brokered agreement to end the hostilities, and in July rebel groups signed a ceasefire deal in Qatar. During the first half 2025, some 9,900 Congolese (DR) applications were lodged in the EU+, which is an increase of 56% compared to the same period in 2024. Recognition rates are low because many applicants are not from conflict affected areas but travel histories remain unclear: two thirds of all applications were newly lodged in France despite few detections at the external borders.    

Typically, about a quarter of asylum applications in the EU+ are lodged by nationals of countries with visa-free access to the Schengen area, enabling them to travel directly by air from their home countries. Spain usually receives the largest share of these applications, with visa-free nationals accounting for more than three quarters of its total caseload. Historically, Venezuelans and Colombians represented the majority of such applicants in the EU+ but more recently Ukrainian nationals also applied in significant numbers. Another notable nationality in this group were Peruvians, who lodged nearly 11,000 applications in the first half of 2025. However, unlike Venezuelans and Colombians, most Peruvians have been applying in Italy (73%) rather than Spain (22%). This trend is impactful to the extent that, in the first half of 2025 Peruvians were the number two citizenship lodging applications in Italy. Political agreement was recently reached on a stronger and more flexible visa suspension mechanism, including new grounds to suspend visa-free regimes in case of misuse or increased irregular migration.

In the first half of 2025, repeated applications — those submitted in the same receiving country after a final decision on a previous claim — accounted for 12% of all asylum applications, a proportion that has remained relatively stable over time. However, rates vary considerably by nationality. Applicants from visa-free Latin American countries — such as Venezuela and Colombia — typically have very low levels of repeated applications (around 1–3%), suggesting that most have recently arrived in the receiving country. These low rates are further influenced by the fact that these applicants are often granted a national form of protection in Spain, reducing the likelihood of reapplying. By contrast, some other nationalities lodge much higher rates of repeated applications, indicating a longer stay in the host country before submitting a new claim. Among the 20 main nationalities in the first half of 2025, Haitians had the highest share of repeated applications (45%), followed by Nigerians (33%), Afghans (21%), and Iraqis (21%).