Latest Asylum Trends: Monthly Overview

Between 2022 and 2024, the recognition rate—which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants granted refugee status or subsidiary protection—fluctuated around 40% at first instance, with refugee status usually being granted more frequently than subsidiary protection. 

In the beginning of 2025, the EU+ recognition rate abruptly fell to 25%, one of the lowest levels on record. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who in the past typically received a high number of positive outcomes. Most EU+ countries temporarily paused the processing of Syrian asylum claims, pending greater clarity on the security and political situation in Syria. By November 2025 the recognition rate had climbed to 35% driven by positive decisions issued to Afghans.

Importantly, the drop in the overall recognition rate in early 2025 did not reflect changing criteria for granting international protection. Rather, the earlier decline was largely driven by procedural factors. In countries that partially suspended the processing of Syrian cases, decisions were still issued in limited scenarios—such as when an assessment of the situation in Syria was not required, particularly for applicants already granted protection elsewhere in the EU+ (e.g. Belgium, Germany). Furthermore, many Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications (840 in November 2025). These developments likely signal evolving intentions among Syrian applicants, including the possibility of return or secondary movements in light of recent political changes. Read the EUAA Syria Country Guidance, which provides an analysis of the main risk profiles in Syria after the fall of Assad's regime and the EUAA Syria Country Focus report, which provides an updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse underlying factors, including procedural effects and various other characteristics. Recognition rates for different nationalities can vary significantly. For example, Sudanese applicants have a recognition rate of around 70%, while Turks around 15%.

While many recognition rates remain fairly stable over time, there have been notable exceptions to this general pattern:

• Afghanistan: The recognition rate used to be around 60% but has recently increased to 80% with most decisions granting refugee status.

• Iraq: The recognition rate has been on the decline from nearly 40% in at the end of 2023 to just 17% in November 2025.

• Haiti: Over the last two years the recognition rate has increased from around 50% at the end of 2023 to more than 90% in November 2025, with most decisions granting subsidiary protection. For more info read a relevant case law example.

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim of the border procedure is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. People in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedure Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348.

In November 2025, some 50% of applications were lodged by citizenships that had recognition rates of 20% or less in 2024 (low-recognition-rate citizenships). This estimation was calculated using EUAA data, plus to ensure statistical reliability, our calculations excluded citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions in 2024. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is small, a few additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.

The chart above shows the main citizenships that applied for asylum in November 2025, separated into whether or not they fall into the category of having a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2024. Nationalities visualised in the chart capture three quarters (74%) of all applications lodged in November 2025.

In the context of asylum, the term 'safe country' refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their people. In April 2025, the European Commission published a proposal of seven countries of origin considered safe at the Union level, which will apply to all EU Member States if approved by the European Parliament and the Council. In practice, the application of this list means Member States will use an accelerated procedure to individually assess asylum applications from nationals of these countries. The proposed list of safe countries of origin includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia which together accounted for 16% of all applications lodged during the first half of 2025. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 22, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.