Monthly Overview
Applications
At the start of 2025, the asylum landscape in the EU+ experienced a significant shift. For the last decade, Syrians had been the largest group of asylum seekers in the EU+ but at the beginning of 2025 this trend reversed with Syrian applications dropping sharply, to fourth place in May, while Venezuelans emerged as the top applicant group. At the same time Germany, which had long been the leading destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, has for most of 2025 been receiving fewer applications than Spain, Italy and France. The shift in Germany's position as the primary receiving country within the EU+ indicates a change in the distribution of asylum applications across the region.
The drop in Syrian applications has been extremely abrupt. In December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, (HTS) seized control of Damascus, overthrowing the Assad regime and then a new transitional Syrian government was established in March 2025. Subsequently the US administration revoked US sanctions on Syria and more recently, revoked terrorist designation for HTS. These events coincided with a steep downward trend in Syrians seeking protection in EU+ – monthly Syrian asylum applications fell from roughly 16,000 in October 2024 to just 3,100 in May 2025, a steep fivefold decrease in just seven months. This downturn, the like of which has not been seen since the initial wave of COVID-19 lockdowns when many borders and asylum offices were effectively closed, is likely not due to any asylum policy changes in the EU+.
While it is true that most EU+ countries have (fully or partially) suspended processing Syrian asylum applications until the situation in Syria becomes clearer, they are still accepting new claims. Rather, the shift likely reflects changing circumstances in Syria. With the new authorities advocating for stability and reconstruction, many displaced Syrians have evidently become more hopeful about returning to rebuild their communities, making some less inclined to seek asylum in the EU+. Indeed, according to the UNHCR, as of mid-May 2025, around half a million Syrians have crossed back into Syria since the fall of the Assad regime, with up to 1.5 million returnees expected by the end of the year. However, Syrian protection holders and asylum seekers in Europe are less optimistic: UNHCR survey shows that over 80% do not intend to return to Syria in the next year. EUAA Surveys with Asylum-related Migrants indicate that both before and after the fall of the Assad regime, Syrians in the EU+ viewed advances in the security situation and personal freedom as the key areas that would need to improve for them to consider returning. After 9 December 2024, other areas gained prominence, most notably financial conditions and employment but also access to basic services, education and medical care. For updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, read two EUAA Syria Country Focus reports from July 2025, and March 2025 and for an analysis of the main profiles in Syria read EUAA’s Syria Country Guidance.
In contrast, asylum applications from Venezuelan nationals have mainly been on the rise. Indeed, in May 2025, Venezuelans were the most common citizenship seeking asylum in the EU+, with around 8,200 applications, which is a 21% increase compared to the same month in 2024. This surge is part of an ongoing trend, as Venezuelans have consistently been among the top applicant groups in recent years, plus they were the most common refugees globally at the end of 2024. In the EU+, the vast majority of claims are lodged in Spain, where a shared language and established diaspora make it the primary destination. Although most Venezuelan applicants do not receive international protection, Spanish authorities tend to grant them a national form of protection, allowing them to stay.
Multiple factors are likely driving the rise in Venezuelan applications. The severe economic and political crisis in Venezuela continues to uproot people. Most Venezuelans are in Latin American countries where they tend to be granted residence: Colombia (2.8 million), Peru (1.1 million), Brazil (606,000), Chile (524,000) and Ecuador (442,000). However, evolving US migration policies may influence migration intentions. In late 2024, the United States tightened their asylum rules and resumed deportation flights for Venezuelans, which may have discouraged some from trying to go there. Facing these barriers, more Venezuelans may turn their focus towards the EU+. Importantly, Venezuelan citizens can travel visa-free to the Schengen area for short stays, making it relatively easy to fly to countries like Spain and then apply for asylum. Indeed, roughly a quarter of all asylum seekers in the EU+ come from nations whose citizens enjoy visa-free access to Schengen (for an annual chart, click here).
Afghans have also long played an important role in the asylum landscape in the EU+. In May 2025, they lodged 6,500 applications forming part of a stable trend over the last year. Looking further back in time, applications were much reduced compared the peak of the autumn of 2023 but still, Afghans were ranked second in May 2025 among all citizenships seeking asylum. Read an EUAA Country Focus report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, plus Country Guidance, which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection.
For the last three years, significant numbers of Bangladeshis have been seeking asylum in the EU+, sometimes submitting more than 4,000 applications in a single month. In May 2025, Bangladeshis lodged 3,200 applications, somewhat fewer compared to a year earlier but still placing them third among all citizenships. The vast majority (78%) of Bangladeshis applied in Italy where repeated applications were extremely rare, suggesting that the applicants were newly-arrived in the EU+. Read an EUAA Country Focus report which highlights issues relevant to international protection in the assessment of claims from Bangladeshi nationals.
Thousands of people have been killed in a conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while many more have been forced to flee their homes. In June 2025, there was an US-brokered agreement to end the hostilities, but at the time of writing, rebel groups are yet to sign. In May 2025, some 1,500 Congolese (DR) applications were lodged in the EU+, which is an increase of 54% compared to a year previously. Three quarters were lodged in France, where repeated applications represented 9% of the total.
In the autumn of 2023, Turkish nationals suddenly sought international protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers such that for a short time they ranked second among all citizenships applying for asylum. This influx was likely driven by several factors including political dissidents. This Germany-centred surge was however short-lived with far fewer Turks seeking protection in subsequent months, such that in May 2025, Turks lodged just 2,600 applications which is down by 33% compared to a year previously. However, the recent arrests of political opponents including the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, does not bode well for stability in Türkiye.
In 2024, Haitian gang violence spread from the capital Port-au-Prince to other parts of the country. As a consequence, the number of internally displaced tripled to over 1 million. Almost half of all Haitians require humanitarian assistance and acute food insecurity affects more than 5 million people. At the same time, more Haitians are seeking refuge in the EU+, with 1,200 applications lodged in May 2025, which is a 24% increase compared to the same month in 2024. These applications were almost exclusively lodged in France, more or less equally split between first-time and repeated applications.
Recognition rates
Over the last two years, the recognition rate, which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants that receive decisions granting either refugee status or subsidiary protection, has fluctuated around 40% at first instance, with more decisions granting refugee status rather than subsidiary protection.
In the beginning of 2025, the EU+ recognition rate fell to its lowest level outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and stood at 24% in May. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who had typically received a high number of positive outcomes. Most EU+ countries temporarily paused the processing of Syrian asylum claims during this period, pending greater clarity on the security and political situation in Syria. As a result, the number of decisions issued to Syrians fell significantly—from a typical monthly volume of over 12,000 in November 2024 to just 1,700 in May 2025. Of the decisions issued in May, only 25% were positive, in stark contrast to the usual recognition rate of 90% or higher for Syrian nationals.
Importantly, this shift does not reflect stricter qualification for granting international protection to Syrians. Instead, the lower recognition rate appears to be largely driven by procedural factors. For example, countries that partially suspended the processing of Syrian cases take decisions in specific circumstances, such as when an assessment of the situation in Syria is not needed, e.g. for Syrian applicants who have already been granted protection status by another EU Member State (e.g. Belgium, Germany). Furthermore, some Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications, which is, in some EU+ countries, recorded statistically as a negative decision. This may reflect evolving intentions among Syrian applicants, with some possibly planning to return home given the recent political developments in Syria.
As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including differences between citizenships and various other characteristics. Recognition rates for different nationalities can vary significantly. For example, Eritrean applicants have a recognition rate of more than 70%, while nationals from Guinea have rates around 20-30%. While many recognition rates remain fairly stable over time—such as those for Georgians and Bangladeshis, who maintained recognition rates of below 5% in May 2025—there are notable exceptions to this general pattern:
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Turks: The recognition rate has been in a steady decline for more than the last two years, reaching 11% in May 2025.
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Iraq: In the autumn of 2023, more than half of all decisions issued to Iraqis were positive but this has since fallen to less than a third. Read EUAA Country Guidance for Iraq.
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Haiti: The recognition rate of Haitians has increased from 40%-50% in the second half of 2023, to more than 80% in early 2025.
Pending cases
Pending first instance asylum cases represent applications awaiting an initial decision from national asylum authorities. This metric serves as a critical indicator of the workload faced by asylum systems and the pressure exerted on reception facilities. As of the end of May 2025, the number of pending first instance cases remained stable but at a high level of 928,000.
Citizenships lodging the most applications also tend to account for the largest shares of pending cases. At the end of May 2025, Syrians (111,000), Venezuelans (110,000) and Colombians (84,000) were awaiting the most first instance decisions. Note that many of the 111,000 Syrian cases have been suspended until the situation in Syria has stabilised, and so these cases are not being processed for the time being. Among the citizenships with the most cases awaiting decisions, the biggest year-on-year increases occurred for Indians (+94%), Ukrainians (+63%), Venezuelans (+51%), Peruvians (+17%) and Congolese (DR) (+25%).
Geographically, the largest absolute increase in pending cases over the past year occurred in Italy (+22%) where the Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Egyptian and Peruvian caseloads dominate, in Spain (+12%) where Venezuelans, Colombians and Peruvians dominated the pending caseload, and in France (+21%) where most pending cases belonged to Ukrainians, Congolese (DR) and Guineans. In contrast, Germany's pending caseload declined by a non-trivial -34% between May 2024 and May 2025.
Migrants from Ukraine
The Survey of Asylum-related Migrants (SAM) is a multi-country tool designed to collect testimonies directly from people seeking international protection across the EU+. Based on the premise that digital literacy is increasingly prevalent, the project uses online, self-administered surveys that can be completed on smartphones and offers the possibility to survey large numbers of migrants at the same time. The primary objective of SAM is to establish a permanent system of collecting standardised, reliable and comparable data on relevant topics, such as push and pull factors, travel histories and migrants’ future aspirations. Understanding these topics both facilitates general preparedness to deal with a high number of arrivals but also helps to better inform policymakers.
On 11 April 2022, the EUAA launched the Survey of Arriving Migrants for displaced people from Ukraine (SAM–UKR), with the support of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The questionnaire was updated in February 2023 to include additional topics. Demographics of the responses since February 2023, as of 31 May 2025, are shown below. Recently the EUAA released Survey of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine: Movements and Returns Report, which also features a contribution by Gradus Research based in Kyiv.
The SAM-UKR survey is ongoing and accessible in Ukrainian, Russian and English at: https://tellusyourstorysurvey.eu/.
For more information on SAM and on other projects related to displacement from Ukraine, access the following reports:
Surveys of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine: Movements and Returns Report
This Movements and Returns report uses 7,600 surveys to highlight the prevailing themes related to movements to the EU, intra-EU, and returns.
Providing Temporary Protection to Displaced Persons from Ukraine
The report covers national developments in the implementation of the Temporary Protection Directive, from crisis measures to changing legislation and practices.
This Migration Research Series paper highlights four research projects employed by the EUAA that seek to understand displacement from Ukraine to the European Union.
Voices Europe experiences hopes and aspirations forcibly displaced persons Ukraine Executive Summary
This report highlights the prevailing themes emerging from forced displacement, drawn from the personal testimonies of over 1,500 respondents participating in the ongoing Survey of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine.
Data tables
Definitions
Asylum applications include all persons who have lodged or have been included in an application for international protection as a family member in the reporting country during the reporting month.
EU+ refers to the 27 European Union Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland.
First instance decisions include all persons covered by decisions issued on granting EU-regulated international protection status (refugee or subsidiary protection) following a first time or repeated application for international protection in the first instance determination process.
Stock of pending cases includes all cases for which an asylum application has been lodged and are under consideration by the national authority responsible for the first instance determination of the application for international protection (until the first instance decision has been issued) at the end of the reference period (i.e. last day of the reference month). It refers to the “stock” of applications for which decisions at first instance are still pending.
The EU+ recognition rate includes EU-regulated forms of protection (refugee status and subsidiary protection) and excludes national protection forms (humanitarian reasons). It is calculated by dividing the number of positive first instance decisions (granting refugee status or subsidiary protection) by the total number of decisions issued.
Low-recognition-rate citizenships refers to citizenships that were issued decisions that granted either refugee status or subsidiary protection in ≤20% of cases. To ensure statistical reliability, we excluded citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions annually. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is very small, even one or two additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.