Latest Asylum Trends: Mid-Year Review 2026

While an asylum application is awaiting a first instance decision, it remains part of the caseload of applications under examination by the asylum authorities. The number of pending cases serves as a key indicator that reflects the workload faced by national authorities and the strain on national asylum systems, including reception systems. 

At the end of June 2026, around 770,000 cases were pending at first instance in the EU+, around 8% fewer than the 837,000 recorded a year earlier. The decline was nevertheless concentrated among more recent cases: at the end of June 2026, around 203,000 cases had been pending for less than 6 months, down by around 22% from June 2025, whereas the number pending for more than 6 months remained broadly stable at around 565,000, only slightly below the 573,000 recorded a year earlier. Consequently, the share of the caseload pending for more than 6 months increased from around 68% to 73%. This suggests that the fall in the overall number of pending cases is being driven mainly by fewer recent cases entering or remaining in the stock, rather than by a comparable reduction in older cases.

In general, citizenships lodging the most applications tend to have the most cases awaiting decisions. At the end of June, Venezuelans had by far the most cases awaiting first instance decisions, at around 129,000, followed by Syrians (76,000), Colombians (64,000), Peruvians (38,000) and Bangladeshis (36,000). In fact, Venezuelan pending cases increased by around 14% compared with June 2025, while particularly strong increases were also visible for Malians (+70%), Chinese (+68%) and Sudanese (+56%).

Growing and ageing caseloads: Venezuelans provide the clearest example of a growing and ageing pending caseload. At the end of June 2026, around 129,000 Venezuelan cases were awaiting a first instance decision, 14% more than a year earlier and the largest pending caseload of any citizenship. The increase was entirely concentrated among older cases: those pending for more than six months rose from around 68,000 to 98,000 (+44%), while cases pending for less than six months fell from 45,000 to 31,000. As a result, more than three quarters of the Venezuelan caseload had been pending for over six months. This is particularly noteworthy given that Venezuelan applications are overwhelmingly lodged in Spain, where many applicants who do not qualify for international protection have been granted a national form of protection.

A similar combination of growth and ageing was visible for some smaller caseloads. Chinese pending cases increased by 68%, from around 6,200 in June 2025 to 10,000 in June 2026, the highest level in the series. Cases pending for more than six months almost doubled, from 3,400 to 6,500. Haitian pending cases also increased, from 4,300 to 5,600, while cases older than six months more than doubled from around 850 to 1,900.

Shrinking but ageing caseloads: For several citizenships, the total number of pending cases declined, but this was driven mainly by reductions in newer cases, leaving an increasingly old residual caseload. Colombian pending cases fell from around 82,000 in June 2025 to 64,000 in June 2026, but newer cases pending for less than six months fell much more rapidly, from 11,000 to 4,500. Consequently, a significant 93% of Colombian pending cases had been awaiting a decision for more than six months by the end of June. For Peruvians, the overall stock was broadly stable at around 38,000, but cases older than six months increased slightly while newer cases declined, raising the share of older cases to 84%. A similar shift towards older cases was visible among Ukrainians and Congolese (DR), even as their total pending caseloads declined.

Growing caseloads with a large recent component: A different pattern was apparent for Sudanese and Malians, whose pending cases increased rapidly while remaining heavily weighted towards more recent cases. Sudanese pending cases increased from around 8,000 in June 2025 to 12,000 in June 2026, with cases pending for less than six months increasing to around 7,000. Malians had around 14,000 pending cases, up from 8,200 a year earlier, of which around 8,300 had been pending for less than six months. In both cases, therefore, a majority of the pending caseload was less than six months old, consistent with recent increases in applications.

Shrinking old caseloads: For Afghans and Turkish nationals, reductions in pending cases extended to both newer and older cases. Afghan pending cases almost halved, from around 51,000 in June 2025 to 27,000 in June 2026, while the number pending for more than six months fell from 28,000 to 13,000. The Turkish caseload declined even more sharply, from around 36,000 to 17,000, with older cases falling from 28,000 to 12,000. Unlike the ageing caseloads described above, these declines therefore involved substantial reductions in the stock of long-pending cases.

The Syrian case: Syria presents a distinct pattern, partly reflecting changes in the processing of Syrian claims following the fall of the Assad regime. In the first half of 2025, most EU+ countries temporarily paused or limited the processing of Syrian applications while they reassessed the security and political situation in Syria, although new applications continued to be accepted. In countries where processing was only partially suspended and in countries where processing resumed, decisions tended to be issued in specific circumstances where an assessment of conditions in Syria was not required, for example for applicants who had already been granted protection in another EU+ country. 

By early 2026, more Syrian cases were again being processed, particularly in Germany. These procedural developments may help explain the changing size and age profile of the Syrian pending caseload. At the end of June 2026, around 76,000 Syrian cases were awaiting a first instance decision, down from 110,000 a year earlier. Cases pending for less than six months fell especially sharply, from around 20,000 to 7,600 (-62%), broadly reflecting the steep decline in new Syrian applications. However, cases pending for more than six months declined more slowly, from around 88,000 to 68,000 (-23%), meaning that at the end of June 2026 almost 90% of the remaining Syrian caseload was more than six months old. The pattern is therefore consistent with a large stock of pending cases ageing during the period of suspended or limited processing, followed by a gradual reduction as processing resumed, while far fewer new applications entered the caseload. The number of older cases has now clearly begun to fall, but a substantial backlog remains.