Latest Asylum Trends: Mid-Year Review 2026

EU+ countries received around 332,000 applications for international protection between January and June 2026, 17% fewer than in the same period of 2025. Excluding the pandemic-affected years of 2020 and 2021, this was the lowest first-half level since 2019.

The decline reflects several simultaneous developments rather than a uniform reduction across citizenships. The largest absolute decreases were among Venezuelans and Syrians, followed by Colombians, Ukrainians and Turkish nationals. These falls outweighed increases among Sudanese, Bangladeshis, Haitians, Somalis and several other groups. Syrian applications in particular remained far below the levels seen before the fall of the Assad government in December 2024.

The largest applicant groups in the first half of 2026 were:

• Afghans — around 39,000 applications, 
• Venezuelans — around 33,000, 
• Bangladeshis — around 20,000, 
• Egyptians and Turks — around 12,000 each, and 
• Sudanese and Syrians — around 11,000 each. 

Together, the 20 main citizenships accounted for around 70% of all applications.

Afghans lodged around 39,000 applications in the first half of 2026. Although this was 7% fewer than in the same period of 2025, Afghan applications had risen strongly during the second half of 2025, largely because of repeated applications from Afghan women already present in the EU+, particularly in Germany, driven by legal clarification regarding their status. By the first half of 2026, both first-time and repeated Afghan applications were declining, indicating that this earlier surge was receding.

Venezuelan asylum trends reflect a combination of continuing political and socioeconomic instability in Venezuela, visa-free access to the Schengen area, and the particular protection and migration opportunities available in Spain. 

Venezuelans can travel to the Schengen area without a visa, while Spain has historically granted national humanitarian protection to many Venezuelans who do not qualify for EU-regulated international protection.

More recently, Spain has also introduced a regularisation process for migrants already living in the country since 2025, potentially providing an alternative pathway to legal residence and employment without relying on the asylum procedure. By the June 2026 deadline, 1.2 million people had applied for the programme. This may have contributed to the recent decline in Venezuelan asylum applications, especially as Spain will likely stop granting national protection to Venezuelans after June 2026. Nevertheless, Venezuelans still lodged around 33,000 applications in the first half of 2026, down by almost one third year on year, and 93% were lodged in Spain.

Applications remained concentrated in a small number of countries. France received around 69,000 applications (21%), Italy 66,000 (20%), Spain 55,000 (17%) and Germany 54,000 (16%). Together, these four countries received around 75% of all applications lodged in the EU+. Greece received a further 23,000, or 7% of the total.

When adjusted for population size, Greece recorded the most applications per capita, with 2,254 applications per million inhabitants, followed by Cyprus with 1,732. The EU+ level was 710 applications per million inhabitants, equivalent to around one application for every 1,408 residents. Per-capita figures can differ substantially from absolute application numbers: Ireland and Italy, for example, received ten-fold differences in the number of actual applications, but almost identical numbers relative to their populations.

It should be noted that many EU+ countries are also hosting many beneficiaries of temporary protection, most of which are in Germany and Poland whereas Czechia hosts the most per capita. 

During the first half of 2026, the EU+ recognition rate was 31% at first instance. This means that nearly a third of first instance decisions granted either refugee status or subsidiary protection. National forms of protection, such as humanitarian protection, are not included as positive decisions in the EU+ recognition rate.

Yes. Recognition rates differed substantially between citizenships. In the first half of 2026, rates were high for Malians (87%), Haitians (84%), Afghans (73%) and Sudanese (65%), while they were very low for Bangladeshis and Venezuelans (3% each), Egyptians (2%) and Peruvians (3%). Recognition rates can also vary between receiving countries because of differences in applicant profiles, jurisprudence, national policies and other factors.

At the end of June 2026, around 770,000 cases were pending at first instance in the EU+, around 8% fewer than a year earlier. However, the pending caseload has become older: around 565,000 cases, or 73%, had been pending for more than six months, compared with 68% a year earlier.

First instance figures do not include cases pending in appeal or review. The EUAA therefore combines first instance EPS data with Eurostat data to estimate the total caseload. At the end of May 2026 (latest available data) there were 1.18 million cases in the EU+ awaiting decisions at all instances or which around a third were in appeal or in review.  

The Pact on Migration and Asylum entered into application on 12 June 2026. Among other changes, it introduces procedures particularly relevant to applicants from countries on the common EU list of safe countries of origin and from citizenships with an EU-wide recognition rate of 20% or less. Around 56% of applications lodged in the first half of 2026 were from accession countries, other EU safe countries of origin, or other citizenships with a 2025 EU-wide recognition rate of 20% or less. Individual circumstances nevertheless remain relevant to how each application is processed.

At present, applications from Iranian nationals remain relatively low and represent a small share of total EU+ asylum applications. During the first half of 2026, Iranian nationals lodged around 3,600 applications, remaining a relatively small contributor to the overall EU+ asylum inflow. This was broadly stable compared with the same period in 2025 (which includes the Twelve-Day War) and still does not indicate a sustained increase.

However, the situation remains uncertain. Previous increases — such as those observed following government crackdowns in 2022–2023 — were gradual and limited in scale. In fact, in the past Iranian applications tended to be more affected by visa policy changes in countries of transit. Given Iran’s large population of around 90 million, even a small proportion seeking protection could result in significant and sudden increases in the EU+. However, IOM monitoring up to early August continued to show predominantly localised, temporary and regular cross-border mobility rather than mass displacement from Iran, while Iranian applications remained a marginal component of the EU+ caseload during the first half of 2026.